Bonds Firing on All Cylinders After Data and Treasury Supply
Tue, Jul 29 2025, 4:33 PM
MBS Recap
Bonds Firing on All Cylinders After Data and Treasury Supply
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:33 PM
Bonds Firing on All Cylinders After Data and Treasury Supply
The bond market was in flow state on Tuesday with decent overnight gains, steady buying after economic data, a strong 7-yr auction despite the rally, and additional buying after the 7-yr auction. It was as if every cue was a green light for buyers. This can be rationalized as a combination of decently friendly data and Treasury supply timing. Yesterday's auctions didn't benefit from the updated Treasury borrowing estimates. Also, those buyers weren't sure how today's auctions would go. By the time we got to today's 7-yr, we knew what the quarterly refunding announcement looked like, all the other auctions were out of the way, data was reasonably helpful, and we suspect some early month-end buyers thought the time was right to get what they needed for Thursday. Perfect little storm? Sure, why not? Continuation likely requires more friendly data tomorrow. Bonds won't want to take too big a lead-off ahead of NFP Friday without serious justification.
modestly stronger overnight with additional gains at 930am NYSE open. MBS up 3 ticks (.09). 10yr down 3.9bps at 4.374
11:14 AM
stronger after data. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 6.2bps at 4.351
01:07 PM
Additional gains after 7yr auction. MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 8.2bps at 4.331
03:41 PM
heading out at best levels. MBS up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr down 9bps at 4.323
Lock / Float Considerations
Tuesday was a strong day for the bond market on several fronts (good reaction to data, strong Treasury auction despite AM rally, additional rally after auction). Lenders repriced but likely still have a cushion in the average case. This creates a rare asymmetric risk in favor of floaters, but it should always be noted that bonds could easily lose enough ground to completely erase the friendly imbalance. Whether or not it happens really depends on data.