Bonds Turn Green After Econ Data and Treasury Auction
Tue, Oct 7 2025, 4:26 PM
MBS Recap
Bonds Turn Green After Econ Data and Treasury Auction
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:26 PM
Bonds Turn Green After Econ Data and Treasury Auction
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory as yields continue to drift inside the narrow post-Fed range. The absence of big-ticket econ data is a key reason for the lack of volatility. But the lower-tier econ data can still move the needle as evidenced by this morning's NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. The survey showed a slight deterioration in attitudes about the labor market. Bonds moved into stronger territory after that and went on to hit the day's best levels shortly after a well-received 3yr Treasury auction.
Modestly weaker overnight, but moving into positive territory now. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.4bps at 4.142
11:56 AM
Gains continue. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.7bps at 4.121
02:43 PM
Temporary gains after strong 3yr auction, but back to pre-auction levels now. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.3bps at 4.125
Lock / Float Considerations
Risk/reward surround the lock/float decision remains muted during the government shutdown. In terms of trends and outright levels, the modest rally to the lowest rates in more than 2 weeks presents a compelling lock opportunity for risk-averse clients. The risk tolerant crowd is still waiting to see when the jobs report comes out (as long as bonds don't lose too much ground between now and then).
