Bonds Look Past 10yr Auction to Maintain Focus on Jobs
Wed, Nov 12 2025, 4:10 PM
MBS Recap
Bonds Look Past 10yr Auction to Maintain Focus on Jobs
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:09 PM
Bonds Look Past 10yr Auction to Maintain Focus on Jobs
While there were no big ticket economic reports on today's calendar, bonds came into the session with a tailwind from yesterday's weekly ADP payrolls data. Unlike the monthly numbers seen in last week's monthly ADP report (which showed a +42k increase in payrolls), yesterday's weekly numbers showed an 11k decline so far in November. Treasury futures (not closed for the holiday) reacted clearly and immediately. As a result, 10yr yields opened nearly 5bps lower this morning and managed to hold those gains throughout the session. Traders had almost no regard for the slightly soft results in the 10yr Treasury auction at 1pm ET with most of the day's ebbs and flows lining up with stock market volatility instead.
Stronger over the holiday, exclusively in response to ADP weekly jobs numbers. MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 4.4bps at 4.077
11:57 AM
Still generally flat, but at best levels of the day. MBS up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr down 6.3bps at 4.059
01:26 PM
Slightly weak 10yr auction and a bit of selling after the fact. 10yr still down 5.9bps at 4.064. MBS up 10 ticks (.31).
03:44 PM
Still sideways. MBS up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr down 5.4bps at 4.068
Lock / Float Considerations
Yields/rates are pushing the lower boundaries of November's narrow range thanks to weekly ADP data. While a confirmed reopening of the government could still introduce volatility, its scope could be limited by the need to wait for additional data (as well as clarity on the release schedule for backlogged government data).
