Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame
1 Hour, 56 Min ago
MBS Recap
Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:01 PM
Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame
The government reopened on Thursday. Both stocks and bonds sold off moderately in response. The bond market weakness is in line with our expectations for a confirmed reopening based on the simple logic that a prolonged shutdown would have been increasingly detrimental to economic growth. Comments from a few Fed speakers added fuel to the fire by calling a December rate cut into question. That said, assuming the big-ticket econ data is back up and running by then, the outcome of those reports will likely add clarity to rate cut expectations (or lack thereof). In case anyone needs the reminder, econ data WILL NOT simply resume on its previous calendar. Releases that were on the schedule will be delayed until further notice and we continue waiting for an updated release schedule from data agencies.
Weaker overnight and a bit more selling in the past few minutes. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 3 ticks (.09) since rate sheets. 10yr up 4.8bps at 4.113
12:24 PM
Best levels of the day in Treasuries with 10yr up only 3bps at 4.096. MBS down an eighth of a point.
01:11 PM
A bit weaker after 30yr auction. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.5bps at 4.111
03:23 PM
New Lows. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 5bps at 4.114
Lock / Float Considerations
As expected, the confirmation of the reopening of the government brought a modest amount of weakness to the bond market on Thursday. As continues to be the case, it will take the reappearance of big-ticket econ data to drive more serious momentum. As of today, we're still waiting on updated release schedules. The affected agencies are unlikely to release the biggest reports without some advanced notice. This limits the overnight surprise potential when it comes to bigger bond market movement, but moderate volatility remains a risk in the short term.
