Gains Completely Erased; Stocks Looking More Culpable
Fri, Nov 14 2025, 4:58 PM
MBS Recap
Gains Completely Erased; Stocks Looking More Culpable
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:58 PM
Gains Completely Erased; Stocks Looking More Culpable
Viewed in a vacuum, this mornings 7-8am rally remains enigmatic. There was some small case to be made that stock losses played a role, but the bond buying definitely didn't line up with stocks in a normal way (i.e. it looked like there was some third variable that caused the bond rally to play out in a much more concentrated way). But as the day progressed, we saw stronger evidence of correlation between stock prices and bond yields. Specifically, a sharp rebound in stocks at the 9:30am NYSE open coincided with an equally sharp reversal in bonds. Yields ultimately leveled off 2.5-3bps higher on the day with MBS spending the afternoon in just barely weaker territory.
Initially weaker overnight, but now stronger after a big rally at 7am-730am. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.067
09:58 AM
giving up most of the AM gains. 10yr down less than half a bp at 4.112. MBS still up 3 ticks (.09) but down 5 ticks (.16) from AM highs.
12:24 PM
New lows. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 2.7bps at 4.142
04:22 PM
Heading out near weakest levels. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 3bps at 4.145
Lock / Float Considerations
The initial updates are now coming out of government agencies regarding rescheduling of econ data. As expected, we'll be waiting a bit--even for the stuff that was already collected prior to the shutdown. In the meantime, bonds have been taking cues from stocks and Fed speakers. The latter have been decidedly more hawkish. Bonds will likely have a tough time finding a bit until they see next week's Fed minutes as this week's Fed comments seem to be bracing traders for a hawkish bias.
