Wednesday ended up being an uneventful trading day with bonds mostly sideways and well within the recent trading range. This isn't hard to believe given the absence of any relevant market movers. Thursday could be different thanks to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of those reports that has occasionally swung for the fences, but that can also have almost no impact. The present example could receive a bit more focus than normal as it will be the first time we've seen this data since October 24th. In addition, recent Fed speeches have reintroduced inflation concerns as a reason to be patient when it comes to additional rate cuts. None of this guarantees fireworks, but at the very least, it's the last potential source of fireworks this year as far as econ data is concerned.
Modestly weaker overnight. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.167
10:42 AM
Back near unchanged levels. MBS unchanged and 10yr up only 0.3 bps at 4.144
02:39 PM
Bouncing back a bit. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.7bps at 4.148
Lock / Float Considerations
Rates are no worse for the wear after Tuesday's jobs report, even if the improvement fell short of what we might expect given the uptick in unemployment. Risk averse clients may view this as suggesting some measure of resistance to the notion of any rapid improvement in rates between now and year-end. Pragmatists assume the market is waiting to consider bigger moves after Thursday's CPI data.
