Bonds spent the past 2 days pushing back toward slightly higher yields after the 10yr nearly hit 4.0% in Tuesday's overnight session. While there was probably some technical resistance at work, Thursday suggests it wasn't a lasting, thematic shift. In other words, rather than remain committed to an ongoing push back toward higher levels, yields were flat to slightly lower. Perhaps this is as simple as 10yr yields hitting the 4.10 mark this morning and traders playing a narrow 4.0-4.10 range until econ data makes a breakout suggestion. On that note, Friday is the busiest morning of the week with the 1st look at Q4 GDP as well as December PCE inflation.
Weaker overnight and little reaction to econ data. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.5bps at 4.102
12:08 PM
Steady gains all morning. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.081
01:38 PM
Best levels of the day. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.068
Lock / Float Considerations
Bonds punted on Thursday. This leaves focus on the week's busiest morning of econ data on Friday. Risks are assumed to be a two way street given the absence of additional selling on Thursday. More simply put, bonds should be willing to take cues from any surprises in the data, for better or worse. With rates at long-term lows, risk-averse clients remain lock-biased. Risk-averse clients still haven't seen enough weakness to trigger any lock cues (but be aware, that can change quickly if the data is much stronger than expected, and the change would transpire before Friday's first rate sheet comes out).
