Around here, "reprice" typically refers to mid-day rate changes from mortgage lenders, but infrequently, a big picture repricing occurs in the bond market. That's what's going on in March and especially over the last 2.5 days. Wednesday's Fed comments and Thursday's ECB/BOE comments confirmed that there's a floor under short term rates for a vast majority of the planet's reserve currency holdings, AND that hikes are quickly replacing cuts as the next likely move (September Fed meeting went from 0% hike chance to more than 25% in less than 2 days). Trading and investment strategies of a majority of the world's investible capital was positioned for an entirely different reality before the Iran war. Now it is repositioning... repricing for new realities.
Sharply weaker overnight with additional selling all morning. MBS down over half a point and 10yr up 7.8bps at 4.327.
01:37 PM
MBS down half a point and 10yr up 11.4bps at 4.364
Lock / Float Considerations
updated 3/20/26
Things are very simple right now because they're very bad. All of March has been generally a one-way trade for bonds with a few corrective moments. We'd continue to wait for the dust to definitively settle before feeling like taking any major risks with locking/floating. The only arguments in favor of floating involve attempting to predict the future and catch falling knives.
