Weekend Selling Reverses After Another Round of De-Escalation Headlines
Mon, Apr 13 2026, 4:08 PM
MBS Recap
Weekend Selling Reverses After Another Round of De-Escalation Headlines
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:04 PM
Weekend Selling Reverses After Another Round of De-Escalation Headlines
Another day, another chance to sort through a barrage of war-related headlines to see which ones mattered to the bond market. In today's case, there were two distinct contenders. The first was apparently bogus. It referred to Iran considering abandoning its enrichment program and it actually caused a visible surge in volume and volatility. The second contender was a batch of headlines around 12:30ET that generally spoke to de-escalation potential and negotiation possibilities. All told, it was enough to reverse the overnight weakness seen after negotiations were allegedly abandoned.
Slightly weaker at the open, but mostly recovered now. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.325
01:26 PM
Best levels. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1bp at 4.305
03:36 PM
Holding near best levels with MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.297
Lock / Float Considerations
4/13/26 - While we assume that the right (or wrong) mix of war-related headlines COULD cause a sharp response in the bond market, the recent trajectory has been very flat compared to March. This leaves more room for different lock/float strategies. Risk takers can set lock triggers at 4.34% or 4.40% in 10yr yield terms. The risk averse crowd doesn't have any reason to lower their defenses until yields are convincingly breaking below 4.30%.
