Nothing really happened on Wednesday as far as the bond market was concerned. Yields were technically a few bps higher thus preserving the phenomenon of rally momentum being limited to 48-hour windows since the start of the Iran war. Despite a barrage of war-related headlines, there was remarkably light volatility in oil prices. Markets seem to be waiting on truly momentous developments (such as a major resumption of hostilities or a confirmed/permanent ceasefire). In the meantime, stocks and bonds both did their own thing today without any of the recently typical correlation to oil prices.
Modestly weaker overnight, partly following oil. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.268
12:55 PM
Weaker into the noon hour, but stabilizing now. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.284
02:34 PM
little-changed since last update. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.1bps at 4.281
Lock / Float Considerations
4/15/26 - Technically, we can claim some sort of victory in yesterday's lock/float guidance, which pointed out that winning streaks have been limited to 2 days. But that wasn't a prediction about what would happen today. It just so happened to work out. There's less of a pattern when it comes to what the recent past would suggest about tomorrow. All we know is that econ data is not heavy hitting, war headlines would need to be bigger than they probably will be in order to have a big impact, and bonds are most likely to kick the proverbial can until that changes.
