Tuesday ended up being a uneventful trading session despite 10yr yields hitting 3-week highs. Those highs were in place right at the open and things gradually improved from there. Markets are expressing a token amount of concern over the lack of progress on US/Iran peace, which continues to be the biggest potential market mover. Notably, there was also an obvious reaction to Consumer Confidence data today (even though it was very small). This lets us know we can't tune out other econ data just because the broader momentum is more likely tied to geopolitical developments.
Modestly weaker overnight. 10yr up 2bps at 4.362 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09).
11:07 AM
MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.359
02:29 PM
MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.357. No reaction to 7 year auction
Lock / Float Considerations
4/28/26 - Minimal day-over-day change. Minimal headline-driven volatility, but bonds are pushing the weaker end of the multi-week range. Any strong showing (i.e. ceiling bounce) between 4.35 and 4.42 would be reassuring for risk-tolerant clients seeking to "play the range." Fed day is not expected to be volatile, although non-Fed headlines could still move the needle.
