Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back
Fri, May 8 2026, 3:34 PM
MBS Recap
Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:28 PM
Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back
Once or twice per week, the bond market manages to post a fairly calm trading day against the prevailing backdrop of generally higher volatility. Today was such a day. The most helpful catalyst was an absence of any major war-related headlines and associated oil price volatility. That said, it's a near certainty that war-related volatility will be back in the coming week.
No major reaction to jobs report. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.375
10:46 AM
Slightly stronger but leveling off. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.356
02:13 PM
MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 4.356
Lock / Float Considerations
5/8/26 - Bonds remain range-bound after starting the week near the highs and failing to break below 4.34%. The next big move depends on the course of the war. There's no way to set a lock/float strategy based on war headlines in the short term. In the slightly longer term, a peace deal would likely carry some benefit for rates versus current levels.
