No one will accuse us of clickbait titles today, or even clickbait analysis. There's just not much to say. Unlike the average trading day of late, bonds held inside a very narrow range AND didn't visibly respond to any major Iran war news (and the typical oil price volatility that follows). Oil prices definitely moved a bit, and bond yields generally followed, but the range was well inside yesterday's. For a few minutes, it looked like bonds were going to struggle with the job openings data, but they quickly found their footing and drifted sideways into the close.
Modestly stronger overnight but nearly unchanged now with MBS up only 1 tick (.03). 10yr down 1bp at 4.446
10:12 AM
Some selling after JOLTS data, but stabilizing now. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down just over half a bp at 4.45
Lock / Float Considerations
6/2/26 - Conspicuous absence of war-related headlines and volatility today, but still plenty of correlation between bonds and oil. From a purely technical standpoint, 10yr yields are bouncing along a floor of 4.43%. The corresponding ceiling is 4.51-4.53 (depending on whether we focus on overnight highs or domestic session highs). Being at 4.45% this afternoon is thus arguably net-bearish. Data seems like it may try to have impact here and there, and Wednesday is a more active day, but everything can change on the right (or wrong) war-related headline.
