Bonds Shake Off Mid-Day Weakness to Hold Mostly Steady
Wed, Aug 5 2026, 3:28 PM
MBS Recap
Bonds Shake Off Mid-Day Weakness to Hold Mostly Steady
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:27 PM
Bonds Shake Off Mid-Day Weakness to Hold Mostly Steady
Bonds took a break from their recent trend of moderate day over day movement to hold relatively steady on Wednesday. Econ data didn't get in the way in any noticeable way. If anything, ISM data briefly helped bonds move away from the day's weaker levels. But the key underlying consideration was a stable, sideways performance in fuel prices. MBS and Treasuries were technically a hair weaker, but it's just as fair to say they were "unchanged." Familiar risks remain in the day's ahead depending on Iran war headlines and Friday's NFP.
Bonds set to open fairly flat after initial overnight gains and a modest pull-back. 10yr down half a bp at 4.611
10:02 AM
No major reaction to ISM data, but some weakness in advance. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.628
11:58 AM
MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 3.7 bps 4.267
03:07 PM
Off weakest levels and holding sideways. MBS roughly unchanged and 10yr up half a bp at 4.619
Lock / Float Considerations
8/5/26 - Wednesday has been more of a push in the recent context, neither adding to, nor detracting from recent momentum. Feels like bonds are poised to digest the next meaningful update in Iran headlines and of course on econ data. Lock/float outlook remains in better shape than last week, but again, with notable event risk either from unexpected headlines or econ data surprises.
