Bonds lost ground today, but it wasn't necessarily an unequivocally bad day. Yields were close to yesterday's lows just before this morning's PCE data came out and only moved higher after that. If the data had been better, it's possible today could have started on a stronger note. Oil price volatility was the other notable factor with prices moving up roughly $3 between 5am and noon ET. In light of both of those headwinds, bonds actually lost minimal ground and managed to hold below yesterday's high yields with multiple ceiling bounces at 4.67% in the 10yr. If we see weaker data and lower oil prices ahead, there's no reason to think bonds couldn't challenge this week's best levels again.
Weaker after PCE data. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.654
12:05 PM
MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.664
02:28 PM
Unchanged from previous update
Lock / Float Considerations
8/26/26 - Good reminder of prevailing risks today. Both data and oil prices hurt rates. Both were coin flips. Bonds were clearly open-minded this morning. From a technical standpoint, today was a victory in that yields bounced on the same intraday ceiling at 4.67%, but the daily chart suggests resistance at the 4.62% technical level. Inconclusive.
