For informational purposes only. This is not a commitment to lend or extend credit. Information and/or dates are subject to change without notice. All loans are subject to credit approval. Rates vary based upon market conditions and borrower qualification.
Ugly Snowball Selling Thanks to Oil and Inflation Data
Thu, Sep 10 2026, 4:38 PM
MBS Recap
Ugly Snowball Selling Thanks to Oil and Inflation Data
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:36 PM
Ugly Snowball Selling Thanks to Oil and Inflation Data
MBS lost nearly a full point by 4pm ET and 10yr yields were up 11.4bps at 4.95%. This is the highest since October 2023 when 10s briefly hit 5.006%. At one point in the overnight session, yields were slightly LOWER on the day. Things changed in waves. First wave: oil prices surged overnight and had already broken $100 but the time PPI came out. Second wave: PPI was roughly in line with forecasts, but internal components suggested a 0.1 increase to core PCE inflation. The reaction was the sharpest of the day for bonds. Third wave: late day illiquid redistribution after 30yr bond auction (although this could also be incidental drift ahead of Friday's CPI data). If we could only focus on 2 things, it would be the acceleration in the fuel price trend and the unfriendly PCE implications in today's PPI data.
Much weaker on a combo of oil and PPI reaction. MBS down 5/8ths and 10yr up 8bps at 4.92
01:09 PM
MBS down 22 ticks (.69) and 10yr up 8bps at 4.92
03:39 PM
MBS down just over 7/8ths of a point and 10yr up 11.6bps at 4.957
Lock / Float Considerations
9/10/26 - As always, a highly defensive strategy is the only strategy when bonds are in snowball selling mode. Of course, heavy selling introduces the possibility of a big individual bounce at some point, but it's not something that can be reliably timed/predicted and there's never a guarantee that such bounces are lasting turning points.
For informational purposes only. This is not a commitment to lend or extend credit. Information and/or dates are subject to change without notice. All loans are subject to credit approval. Rates vary based upon market conditions and borrower qualification.
