Friday was calm and sideways in the bigger picture. Sure, a 4+ bp increase in 10yr yields and an MBS decline of just over an eighth of a point might sound somewhat unpleasant on the average day, but considering we saw 4 times as much movement in the other, friendlier direction yesterday, we're not bothered. Rationale was rational to boot. The NASDAQ drifted sideways to slightly higher and nittier grittier canaries like Coreweave bond yields bounced back slightly lower as well. Overall, today did nothing to change the big picture. We're still waiting to see if tech sentiment gets back on track or continues to deteriorate. It won't be able to equivocate for long.
10/23/26 - (unchanged from Thursday) Rates have generally been trending lower for the past 2 weeks as tech concerns have accelerated. The big risk for the lock/float outlook is that the friendly trend remains highly dependent on things staying gloomy for tech.
