MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Bonds Hold Morning Gains; No Reaction to Tariff Headlines - Thu, May 29, 8:46 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Hold Morning Gains; No Reaction to Tariff Headlines MBS Recap Matt...

Thu, May 29, 2:56 PM

Overnight Trading Makes No Guarantees - Thu, May 29, 2:56 PM

We have a primer in the MBS Live knowledge base regarding the potential for overnight news and bond trading to give a completely different impression of how the following day will eventually trad...

Thu, May 29, 12:35 PM

Small Boost From Claims and GDP Revisions - Thu, May 29, 12:35 PM

Jobless Claims 240k vs 230k f'cast, 226k prev Continued Claims 1919k vs 1890k f'cast GDP revision (q1) -0.2 vs -0.3 f'cast Corporate Profits -3.6 vs...

Wed, May 28, 8:51 PM

Minimal Movement Amid Absence of Data - Wed, May 28, 8:51 PM

MBS Recap Minimal Movement Amid Absence of Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:47 PM...

Wed, May 28, 4:14 PM

Hesitation Ahead of Treasury Auction and Month-End - Wed, May 28, 4:14 PM

After starting the holiday-shortened week on a positive note yesterday, bonds are already circling the wagons and encountering some resistance. This doesn't necessarily kill the notion of a suppo...

Wed, May 28, 1:50 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Wed, May 28, 1:50 PM

MBS began the day flat, but jumped in the opening trades by nearly an eighth of a point. Bonds were steady until about 9am and have been losing ground since then. 5.5 coupons are down 3 tic...

Tue, May 27, 9:20 PM

Bonds Finally Seeing Some Support - Tue, May 27, 9:20 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Finally Seeing Some Support MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:19 PM ...

Tue, May 27, 3:33 PM

Japan? Something Else? Does it Matter? - Tue, May 27, 3:33 PM

Last week's overseas headlines raised questions about about a spillover from volatility in the Japanese bond market to US yields. At issue: attention-grabbing newswires regarding a surge in long-...

Fri, May 23, 7:34 PM

A Little Early Excitement - Fri, May 23, 7:34 PM

MBS Recap A Little Early Excitement MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:34 PM ...

Fri, May 23, 3:13 PM

Down a Quarter Point From Highs - Fri, May 23, 3:13 PM

Both stocks and bonds reversed course at the 9:30am NYSE open with bonds erasing most of the day's gains since then. MBS are now nearly unchanged and down exactly a quarter point from the h...

Fri, May 23, 2:37 PM

Wait... So Tariffs Are Good or Bad For Bonds Now? - Fri, May 23, 2:37 PM

The most notable development on what might otherwise have been a sleepy half-day ahead of a holiday weekend was Trump's "recommendation" of a 50% tariff on the EU, effective June 1st. ...

Thu, May 22, 8:38 PM

Slightly Stronger Because Not Every Day Can be Weaker - Thu, May 22, 8:38 PM

MBS Recap Slightly Stronger Because Not Every Day Can be Weaker MBS Recap Matthew ...

Thu, May 22, 2:06 PM

Conspicuous Absence of Volatility After Data and Spending Bill Vote - Thu, May 22, 2:06 PM

The most significant development of the overnight session was the early morning passage of the spending bill in the House. This resulted in only a modest extension of losses in stocks/bonds, most...

Wed, May 21, 8:34 PM

Treasury Auction Blamed as Bond Vigilantes' Smoking Gun - Wed, May 21, 8:34 PM

MBS Recap Treasury Auction Blamed as Bond Vigilantes' Smoking Gun MBS Recap Matthe...

Wed, May 21, 6:18 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming Likely Despite Stabilization in Bonds - Wed, May 21, 6:18 PM

MBS are now down half a point and have been struggling to make progress back in the other direction. 10yr yields are down 9.7bps at 4.583. Both have stabilized sideways, but absent a sharpe...

Wed, May 21, 5:17 PM

Weakest Levels After 20yr Bond Auction - Wed, May 21, 5:17 PM

20yr Treasury Auction 5.047 vs 5.035 forecast/WI Bid to cover 2.46 vs 2.47 avg Note for those who dig into auction stats, the 2.47x avg BTC (bid to cover) is the avg of the la...

Wed, May 21, 2:50 PM

Nothing For Bonds to Trade But Fiscal Disillusionment - Wed, May 21, 2:50 PM

We're now into the 3rd day of a week that's conspicuously lacking in relevant econ data. In addition, the looming holiday weekend hinders participation and increases potential volatility. Th...

Tue, May 20, 9:01 PM

Ultimately Sort of Flat if You Use Your Imagination - Tue, May 20, 9:01 PM

MBS Recap Ultimately Sort of Flat if You Use Your Imagination MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Tue, May 20, 2:11 PM

Budget Battle Hitting Bonds Amid Empty Calendar - Tue, May 20, 2:11 PM

It's a holiday-shortened week with a relatively empty economic calendar, thus forcing the bond market to find its movement cues elsewhere. To some small extent, corporate bond issuance has had ...

Mon, May 19, 7:51 PM

(Un)Surprising Reversal After Initial Weakness - Mon, May 19, 7:51 PM

MBS Recap (Un)Surprising Reversal After Initial Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Mon, May 19, 1:10 PM

Global Bond Audience is Booing US Fiscal Performance - Mon, May 19, 1:10 PM

When Moody's announced the surprise cut of the US credit rating on Friday, there were only a few minutes left to trade and all but the latest working US-based traders were even at their desks. Th...

Fri, May 16, 9:26 PM

Moody's Pulls Pin And Walks Away With 10 Minutes Left to Trade - Fri, May 16, 9:26 PM

MBS Recap Moody's Pulls Pin And Walks Away With 10 Minutes Left to Trade MBS Recap ...

Fri, May 16, 8:56 PM

Losing More Ground After Moody's Downgrade - Fri, May 16, 8:56 PM

This news isn't as big as it may sound but Moody's just downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1 from AAA. In a statement, Moody's said "we recognize the US' significant economic & financial st...

Fri, May 16, 7:01 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing Slightly - Fri, May 16, 7:01 PM

Lenders who have not already repriced for the worse are slightly more likely to be considering it. MBS are now down nearly an eighth of a point on the day and a quarter point from the AM hi...

Fri, May 16, 2:42 PM

Down Just Over an Eighth From AM Highs - Fri, May 16, 2:42 PM

After a decent little overnight rally, bonds began having second thoughts at the 9:30am NYSE open. Notably, this is the 4th straight day where yields moved higher after 9:30am (rotation, an...

Fri, May 16, 2:34 PM

Coasting Into The Weekend With Little Regard For Data - Fri, May 16, 2:34 PM

One might assume that an economic report like Import Prices would carry a lot of weight in light of the news cycle or that the highest 1yr inflation expectations since 1981 in the Consumer Sentim...

Thu, May 15, 8:24 PM

Today's Gains Help Us Understand Yesterday's Losses - Thu, May 15, 8:24 PM

MBS Recap Today's Gains Help Us Understand Yesterday's Losses MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Thu, May 15, 1:58 PM

A "No Whammies" Rally For Bonds After Data and Powell - Thu, May 15, 1:58 PM

This morning's market action is quickly helping us understand the enigmatic trading seen yesterday (i.e. a sell-off without any great scapegoats). Retail sales' control group was well below...

Thu, May 15, 12:41 PM

Minimal Response to Big Data Glut - Thu, May 15, 12:41 PM

Retail Sales 0.1 vs 0.0 f'cast Retail Sales Control Group -0.2 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.5 prev Core PPI Monthly -0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.4 prev Core PPI Annual ...

Wed, May 14, 10:09 PM

(RESEND, Updated Video) Another "Just Because" Sell Off - Wed, May 14, 10:09 PM

MBS Recap Another "Just Because" Sell Off MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:07 PM ...

Wed, May 14, 9:08 PM

Another "Just Because" Sell Off - Wed, May 14, 9:08 PM

MBS Recap Another "Just Because" Sell Off MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:07 PM ...

Wed, May 14, 7:11 PM

One More Alert For The Day - Wed, May 14, 7:11 PM

After holding fairly flat for the past 3 hours, bonds just ratcheted a few more ticks/bps weaker at the 3pm CME close. MBS were briefly down 3/8ths, but currently down a bit less than...

Wed, May 14, 5:01 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Wed, May 14, 5:01 PM

Bonds tried to bounce just after the noon hour, after 10yr yields topped out just over 4.52, but they've slipped back to that ceiling just now (and briefly broke higher). MBS are following a s...

Wed, May 14, 3:22 PM

Down More Than an Eighth - Wed, May 14, 3:22 PM

Bonds have been selling fairly steadily so far this morning, but due to an unfortunately-timed bounce in MBS, many lenders are now seeing prices that are more than an eighth of a point lower sinc...

Wed, May 14, 3:13 PM

Where is The Next Move Coming From? - Wed, May 14, 3:13 PM

It's a potentially frustrating time for bond watchers. The rules have already changed in a big way to accommodate the new wild card presented by tariff policy, and it seems like there have b...

Tue, May 13, 9:07 PM

Bonds End Almost Perfectly Flat - Tue, May 13, 9:07 PM

MBS Recap Bonds End Almost Perfectly Flat MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:05 PM ...

Tue, May 13, 6:20 PM

Just a Bit Weaker and a Bit More Reprice Risk - Tue, May 13, 6:20 PM

This is an amplification of the previous alert as bonds continue to struggle to push back against AM weakness. 10yr yields are up 3.2bps to the highs of the day at 4.502. MBS are down an...

Tue, May 13, 2:49 PM

Stock Gains Creating Bond Pain After Flat Response to CPI - Tue, May 13, 2:49 PM

Heading into the session, we knew there was a high bar for CPI to have a positive influence on bonds with the future tariff landscape reducing the relevance of current price data, but the results...

Tue, May 13, 2:09 PM

MBS Down Just Over an Eighth From Highs - Tue, May 13, 2:09 PM

Bonds began losing ground at the start of the 9:30am NYSE open and losses accelerated just now after several tariff-related headlines. CHINA GOVT REPEATS TARIFF CUT REACHED IN TRADE TALK...

Tue, May 13, 12:38 PM

CPI Comes in Lower. Bonds Aren't Mad - Tue, May 13, 12:38 PM

Monthly Core CPI 0.237 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev Annual Core CPI 2.8 vs 2.8 f'cast, 2.8 prev The market wasn't expecting fireworks from today's CPI and despite a brie...

Mon, May 12, 9:07 PM

Is All News Bad News For Bonds? Will CPI Matter? - Mon, May 12, 9:07 PM

MBS Recap Is All News Bad News For Bonds? Will CPI Matter? MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Mon, May 12, 8:11 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Mon, May 12, 8:11 PM

Negative reprices are now becoming more of a risk (or likelihood, for some lenders) with MBS down just over 3/8ths on the day and a quarter point from mid-day highs. 10yr yields ar...

Mon, May 12, 6:20 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Mon, May 12, 6:20 PM

Bonds have been losing ground in the PM hours at a fairly gradual pace. 10yr yields are just now getting close to the AM highs, up 7.5bps at 4.46%. MBS are back in line with the AM lows ...

Mon, May 12, 3:01 PM

Yields Jump After Another 90 Day Tariff Pause - Mon, May 12, 3:01 PM

10yr yields were up 8bps overnight to the highest levels since April 11th after weekend trade talks between the US and China resulted in significant reductions in tariffs for a period of 90 days ...

Fri, May 9, 9:07 PM

Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain - Fri, May 9, 9:07 PM

MBS Recap Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:07...

Fri, May 9, 7:14 PM

Heads Up: Down an Eighth of a Point From Highs - Fri, May 9, 7:14 PM

Bonds have been almost perfectly flat all day, and we'd still refer to today as flat in the bigger picture. But amidst that broader sideways grind, MBS have slowly inched down from the AM high...

Fri, May 9, 3:04 PM

Lots of Fed Speakers, But The Focus is on China - Fri, May 9, 3:04 PM

A glance at today's economic calendar quickly reveals that Fed speeches are the only game in town in terms of scheduled events. But what can the Fed say that we didn't already hear from Pow...

Thu, May 8, 8:51 PM