MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Philip Bennett

President

Bennett Capital Partners Mortgage Brokers

P: (800) 457-9057

M: (305) 407-0747

bcpmortgage.com

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Mortgage Broker

Miami Mortgage Broker

1101 Brickell Ave STE 800
Miami FL 33131

License:

Pers# 1098318

Corp# 2046862

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Today, 7:48 PM

Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness - Today, 7:48 PM

MBS Recap Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Today, 4:51 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming More Likely - Today, 4:51 PM

MBS continue losing ground at roughly the same pace noted in the previous alert. This alert is just an amplification of the negative reprice risk. Several lenders have already pulled ...

Today, 3:30 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From Rate Sheet Time Frame - Today, 3:30 PM

Bonds have been losing ground steadily since around 9:40am, perfectly aligning with the bounce in equities markets. After trading below 4.20, 10yr yields are back up to 4.225 (still down 1b...

Today, 2:34 PM

Stronger Start as Tariffs Continue Driving Flight to Safety - Today, 2:34 PM

Right out of the gate in the overnight session, stocks were weaker and bonds were stronger in a risk-off move that has become all too familiar for financial markets recently. Over the weekend, ...

Fri, March 28, 9:14 PM

What's Up With The Big Bond Rally Despite Higher Inflation? - Fri, March 28, 9:14 PM

MBS Recap What's Up With The Big Bond Rally Despite Higher Inflation? MBS Recap Ma...

Fri, March 28, 1:34 PM

Paradoxical Reaction to Slightly Higher Inflation - Fri, March 28, 1:34 PM

Inflation, via this morning's PCE price index, came in slightly hotter than expected, but bonds are rallying in response. There are a few ways to approach this paradox both in the long and short ...

Fri, March 28, 12:42 PM

Bonds Unfazed By Slightly Hotter PCE - Fri, March 28, 12:42 PM

Core PCE M/M 0.365 vs 0.30 f'cast, 0.3 prev Core PCE Y/Y 2.8 vs 2.7 f'cast, 2.7 prev Annual PCE (non-core) 2.5 vs 2.5 f'cast/prev Perhaps it was the f...

Thu, March 27, 8:28 PM

Uneventful Drift Ahead of Friday's Monthly PCE Data - Thu, March 27, 8:28 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Drift Ahead of Friday's Monthly PCE Data MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Thu, March 27, 12:58 PM

This Isn't The PCE We're Looking For - Thu, March 27, 12:58 PM

If you're just joining us, here's a brief history of the last few decades as it concerns inflation and interest rates. Inflation was an overblown concern among market participants who were scarre...

Wed, March 26, 9:27 PM

Narrow Trading, Weaker Drift; MBS Live Threads Intro - Wed, March 26, 9:27 PM

MBS Recap Narrow Trading, Weaker Drift; MBS Live Threads Intro MBS Recap Matthew G...

Wed, March 26, 8:33 PM

MBS at Lows. Negative Reprices Can't be Ruled Out - Wed, March 26, 8:33 PM

MBS just hit their lowest levels of the day--just barely--with 5.5 coupons down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and the same amount from the mid-day highs. Most lenders published rate sheets befor...

Wed, March 26, 3:37 PM

Yields Pushing Against 1 Month Highs - Wed, March 26, 3:37 PM

The first 3 days of this week have all generally seen yields at the highest levels in a month (or perhaps in "at least 28 days" considering Feb's day count). While that doesn't sound li...

Tue, March 25, 8:25 PM

Overnight Weakness Gives Way to Modest Gains - Tue, March 25, 8:25 PM

MBS Recap Overnight Weakness Gives Way to Modest Gains MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Tue, March 25, 2:25 PM

Bonds Filling The Gap or Just Tired of Selling? - Tue, March 25, 2:25 PM

Bonds came into the domestic session in weaker territory after steady selling in Europe. The resulting yields were ultimately a few bps higher than the nearest technical ceiling in the 10yr...

Mon, March 24, 7:59 PM

Yields Pushing Range Boundaries After Tariff Updates and Econ Data - Mon, March 24, 7:59 PM

MBS Recap Yields Pushing Range Boundaries After Tariff Updates and Econ Data MBS Recap &...

Mon, March 24, 6:19 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Mon, March 24, 6:19 PM

MBS are now down 11 ticks (nearly 3/8ths of a point) on the day and more than an eighth of a point from most lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, negative reprices are becoming a possi...

Mon, March 24, 4:26 PM

Weaker Start as Stock Market Recovery Continues - Mon, March 24, 4:26 PM

Bonds are starting the week in weaker shape. If you had to reduce that movement to one motivation, it would be the " risk-on " vibes following more news of tariff exclusions over the we...

Mon, March 24, 1:55 PM

Losing Ground After S&P PMI Data - Mon, March 24, 1:55 PM

S&P Services PMI 54.3 vs 50.8 f'cast, 51.0 prev S&P Manufacturing PMI 49.8 vs 51.8 f'cast, 52.7 prev S&P PMIs come out twice per month with today'...

Fri, March 21, 8:45 PM

Small Scale Weakness Leaves Bigger Picture Unchanged - Fri, March 21, 8:45 PM

MBS Recap Small Scale Weakness Leaves Bigger Picture Unchanged MBS Recap Matthew G...

Fri, March 21, 4:57 PM

Session Lows for MBS; Slight Reprice Risk - Fri, March 21, 4:57 PM

Once again, a 9:30am reversal in stocks is coinciding with a 9:30am reversal in bonds. Selling has been steady since then. 10yr yields are now up 2bps on the day at 4.251. MBS a...

Fri, March 21, 3:49 PM

Post-Fed Trade Turning Out As Expected - Fri, March 21, 3:49 PM

Heading into this week's Fed announcement, we noted the consolidation pattern in bonds (the convergence of intraday highs and lows in an increasingly narrow range). After the favorable reac...

Thu, March 20, 9:06 PM

Uneventful Trading Day, But That's a Win - Thu, March 20, 9:06 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Trading Day, But That's a Win MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:06...

Thu, March 20, 3:37 PM

Down Just Over an Eighth From Highs - Thu, March 20, 3:37 PM

Bonds have been selling slowly and steadily since 9:30am. The losses aren't dramatic but they've added up to an eighth of a point of weakness from the AM price plateau. Some of the ea...

Thu, March 20, 3:07 PM

No Whammies in The Data, But Stocks Aren't Helping - Thu, March 20, 3:07 PM

The eternal disclaimer: we should never flat-out expect a particular correlation between stocks and bonds, with limited exceptions. Yesterday's Fed announcement was an exception, because we often...

Wed, March 19, 8:21 PM

Post-Fed Rally is "Nice" But Not Quite Exciting - Wed, March 19, 8:21 PM

MBS Recap Post-Fed Rally is "Nice" But Not Quite Exciting MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Wed, March 19, 6:20 PM

CORRECTION: Not Dots. QT Tapering - Wed, March 19, 6:20 PM

The previous post-Fed update focused on the dot plot, but the before and after chart was not accurate. This is the real version, and much more in line with our expectations for a 'light shu...

Wed, March 19, 6:03 PM

First Move is Stronger After Fed Dots Drop for 2025 - Wed, March 19, 6:03 PM

Here's the before and after dot plot comparison from December and today: Pretty decisive drop in 2025's median, and bonds like it so far. 10yr back to unchanged at 4.287 and MBS u...

Wed, March 19, 6:00 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Wed, March 19, 6:00 PM

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain ...

Wed, March 19, 4:34 PM

Bring on The Dots - Wed, March 19, 4:34 PM

Today's only big ticket calendar event is the Fed announcement, but that is more like 3 separate events over the course of roughly 2 hours. The announcement itself (2pm ET) contains the text of t...

Wed, March 19, 2:31 PM

Down an Eighth From AM Highs - Wed, March 19, 2:31 PM

5.5 UMBS are down an eighth of a point on the day and from the AM highs. Due to the timing of the move, this is more of a heads up than an alert (i.e. most lenders were not out with pricing...

Tue, March 18, 7:37 PM

Low Volatility Session Ahead of Fed Day - Tue, March 18, 7:37 PM

MBS Recap Low Volatility Session Ahead of Fed Day MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:36 ...

Tue, March 18, 3:37 PM

Germany's Debt Increase and Treasury Consolidation - Tue, March 18, 3:37 PM

Recall 2 weeks ago that news of the incoming German Chancellor's ambitions to massively increase debt/spending led to the end of the bond rally in the US that took 10yr yields from 4.55 to 4.15%....

Mon, March 17, 8:12 PM

Mixed Reaction to Retail Sales Makes For a Boring Monday - Mon, March 17, 8:12 PM

MBS Recap Mixed Reaction to Retail Sales Makes For a Boring Monday MBS Recap Matth...

Mon, March 17, 3:57 PM

Bonds Bouncing Back After Early Stumble - Mon, March 17, 3:57 PM

After improving modestly in the overnight session, bonds contended with the Retail Sales data at 8:30am ET. At first glance, it should have been helpful, given that the headline came in at ...

Mon, March 17, 12:35 PM

Losing Some Ground as Retail Sale Control Group Comes in Higher - Mon, March 17, 12:35 PM

Retail Sales 0.2 vs 0.6 f'cast, -0.9 prev Retail Sales "control group" 1.0 vs 0.3 f'cast While the retail sales headline is lower than expected, the control group (...

Fri, March 14, 10:22 PM

Uneventful Friday, Even if Slightly Weaker - Fri, March 14, 10:22 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Friday, Even if Slightly Weaker MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 6:...

Fri, March 14, 1:29 PM

Markets Trading Shutdown Risks? We'll Find Out Soon - Fri, March 14, 1:29 PM

It's been an on-again, off-again week for bonds and several of their trading motivations. Economic data has played its part at times, but not in any excessive way. The same goes for t...

Thu, March 13, 8:25 PM

Stocks Save Bonds From Modest Losses - Thu, March 13, 8:25 PM

MBS Recap Stocks Save Bonds From Modest Losses MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:23 PM ...

Thu, March 13, 2:40 PM

Paradoxical Inflation Report Reaction, PPI Edition - Thu, March 13, 2:40 PM

Seemingly overnight (i.e. over the past 30 days when it comes to markets reacting to economic data), the CPI and PPI inflation numbers that normally impact bonds have been overlooked in favo...

Thu, March 13, 12:41 PM

Big Drop in Producer Prices. Mixed Reaction Due to PCE Implications - Thu, March 13, 12:41 PM

Monthly Core PPI -0.1 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.5 prev Yearly Core PPI 3.4 vs 3.5 f'cast, 3.8 prev Jobless Claims 220k vs 225k f'cast, 222 prev While a -0.1 vs...

Wed, March 12, 8:09 PM

Another Paradoxical Reaction to an Inflation Report - Wed, March 12, 8:09 PM

MBS Recap Another Paradoxical Reaction to an Inflation Report MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Wed, March 12, 3:48 PM

Why Aren't Bonds Happier About CPI? - Wed, March 12, 3:48 PM

Today's CPI came in lower than expected. That would normally help bonds rally, but they didn't seem too eager to do that. One explanation is that the components of CPI that have a bearing on PCE ...

Wed, March 12, 12:41 PM

Mixed Reaction After CPI Comes in Lower - Wed, March 12, 12:41 PM

Core M/M CPI 0.2 vs 0.3 f'cast. 0.5 prev unrounded 0.2266 Core Y/Y CPI 3.1 vs 3.2 f'cast, 3.3 prev While the upward revision to January (a whopping 0.5, m...

Tue, March 11, 7:56 PM

Consolidation Continues Ahead of CPI - Tue, March 11, 7:56 PM

MBS Recap Consolidation Continues Ahead of CPI MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:55 PM ...

Tue, March 11, 6:26 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Tue, March 11, 6:26 PM

MBS are now down more than a quarter point on the day (10 ticks or 0.31) after headlines regarding truce talks between Ukraine and Russia. Most lenders are seeing at least an eighth of a po...

Tue, March 11, 4:52 PM

Increasingly Reluctant to Rally Without More Motivation - Tue, March 11, 4:52 PM

Bonds were initially stronger at the start of overnight trading in Asia, but began selling off at a fairly steady clip almost immediately. By the start of domestic trading, the weakness was...

Tue, March 11, 3:37 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Tue, March 11, 3:37 PM

Bonds traded two ways after the JOLTS data and new tariff headlines, but yields have been moving steadily higher since 10:40am, tracking a rebound in equities markets. 10yr yields are now up 4...

Tue, March 11, 2:06 PM

Weakest (Then Strongest) Levels After JOLTS Data and Tariff Headlines - Tue, March 11, 2:06 PM

Job Openings 7.74m vs 7.63m f'cast, 7.508m prev Job Quits (higher is worse for bonds) 3.266m vs 3.197m prev Although the JOLTS (job openings and labor turnover surv...

Mon, March 10, 7:44 PM

More Help From Stocks, But More Reluctance From Bonds - Mon, March 10, 7:44 PM

MBS Recap More Help From Stocks, But More Reluctance From Bonds MBS Recap Matthew ...

Mon, March 10, 2:27 PM

Bonds Shaking Off Last Week's Weakness as R Word Returns - Mon, March 10, 2:27 PM

Over the weekend, Trump was asked if he was expecting a recession this year. He replied that although he hates to predict such things, "there is a period of transition, because what we're doing i...

Philip Bennett

President

Bennett Capital Partners Mortgage Brokers

P: (800) 457-9057

M: (305) 407-0747

bcpmortgage.com

Apply Now

Mortgage Broker

Miami Mortgage Broker

1101 Brickell Ave STE 800
Miami FL 33131

License:

Pers# 1098318

Corp# 2046862

Ask Me a Question

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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.