MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Erasing Most of The Weakness After Waller Comments - Today, 4:04 PM

Fed's Waller is out with several rate-friendly comments and bonds are reacting. Here are the newswires: FED''S WALLER WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE 50 BPS RATE CUT: IT WAS THE RIGHT NUMBER FED...

Today, 2:36 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth of a Point - Today, 2:36 PM

MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 6 ticks (.19) from the AM highs. Those highs were early enough in the morning that most lenders are not seeing this much of a drop from the tim...

Today, 2:32 PM

Bonds Continue "Selling The News" - Today, 2:32 PM

Wednesday's Fed rate cut was the worst kept secret in the financial world for months, and the 50bp rate cut was increasingly suspected in the week leading up to the announcement. You've lik...

Thu, 8:02 PM

MBS Easily Outperform Longer-Term Treasuries - Thu, 8:02 PM

MBS Recap MBS Easily Outperform Longer-Term Treasuries MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Thu, 7:37 PM

Mixed Reaction to Econ Data; Surprisingly Calm Post-Fed Day - Thu, 7:37 PM

The post-Fed overnight session was surprisingly calm. In fact, relative to the magnitude of yesterday's events and information, this is surely one of the quietest global market reactions on...

Thu, 12:37 PM

Slightly Weaker After AM Econ Data - Thu, 12:37 PM

Jobless Claims 219k vs 230k f'cast, 231k prev Philly Fed Index 1.7 vs -1.0 f'cast -7.0 prev Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory after a surprisingly...

Wed, 9:16 PM

Bonds Lose Ground Despite Larger Fed Rate Cut - Wed, 9:16 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Lose Ground Despite Larger Fed Rate Cut MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Wed, 7:08 PM

MBS Down More Than a Quarter From Highs - Wed, 7:08 PM

MBS have been selling steadily since the start of Powell's press conference. 5.0 coupons are off a quarter point during that time and 10yr yields are up 5bps on the day and 7bps from the lo...

Wed, 6:07 PM

First Move is Stronger As Fed Cuts 50bps - Wed, 6:07 PM

Rate Cut: 50bps Dots show 2 more cuts in 2024 2025 dots show 3.375 vs 4.125 previously Despite the big change, the bond market is not going completely crazy. Trading levels are ...

Wed, 2:33 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth From AM Highs - Wed, 2:33 PM

MBS are now down 7 ticks (.22) on the day and 5 ticks (.16) from the AM highs. Because those AM highs occurred very close to many lenders' rate sheet print times, early negative reprices ca...

Wed, 1:31 PM

Hamlet's Advice on Fed Day - Wed, 1:31 PM

There is special providence in a 50bp Fed rate cut. If it be now, 'tis not to come (until the next Fed meeting perhaps). If it be not to come, it will be now: if it be not now, y...

Tue, 7:39 PM

What Matters in Wednesday's Fed Announcement? - Tue, 7:39 PM

MBS Recap What Matters in Wednesday's Fed Announcement? MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Tue, 3:30 PM

Some Selling After Data, But Does it Matter? (Spoiler Alert: No) - Tue, 3:30 PM

This morning's Retail Sales headline was stronger than expected, but the sub-components (analogous to something like core CPI as opposed to headline CPI) painted a flatter picture. As ...

Tue, 12:36 PM

Slightly Weaker After Retail Sales - Tue, 12:36 PM

Retail Sales 0.1 vs -0.2 f'cast, 1.0 prev Retail Sales excluding autos 0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.4 prev Bonds were barely stronger overnight and are losing just a...

Mon, 8:04 PM

Just Another Day of Waiting - Mon, 8:04 PM

MBS Recap Just Another Day of Waiting MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:04 PM ...

Mon, 4:06 PM

Starting Out Fairly Flat, But Give it a Few Days... - Mon, 4:06 PM

So far in the new week, bonds have rallied a bit in the overnight session and sold off a bit after this morning's stronger NY Fed Manufacturing data. The result is a fairly flat morning wit...

Mon, 1:06 PM

Bonds Surprisingly Willing to Sell After NY Fed Manufacturing Data - Mon, 1:06 PM

NY Fed Manufacturing 11.5 vs -3.9 f'cast, -4.7 prev Bonds were moderately stronger in the overnight session without any excitement in terms of data or headlines apart from a Blo...

Fri, September 13, 8:16 PM

Fed Week Uncertainty Makes For Logical Consolidation - Fri, September 13, 8:16 PM

MBS Recap Fed Week Uncertainty Makes For Logical Consolidation MBS Recap Matthew G...

Fri, September 13, 2:39 PM

No Impact From Consumer Sentiment - Fri, September 13, 2:39 PM

Today's only potentially relevant economic data was the 10am Consumer Sentiment data. This report comes out twice a month, once in "preliminary" form earlier in the month and then in "final...

Thu, September 12, 8:34 PM

Modest Resistance, But No Big Bad Correction - Thu, September 12, 8:34 PM

MBS Recap Modest Resistance, But No Big Bad Correction MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Thu, September 12, 4:20 PM

Weakest Levels of The Day - Thu, September 12, 4:20 PM

There's been some back and forth this morning and no major moves, but MBS have just trickled to the weakest levels of the day with 5.0 coupons down an eighth of a point on the day and 6 ticks (.1...

Thu, September 12, 2:43 PM

Mixed Bag of Econ Data. Mixed Market Reaction. Rally Looking Tired - Thu, September 12, 2:43 PM

Thursday brings this week's last opportunity for the market to react to moderately important economic data before next week's Fed announcement. So far, it looks like fireworks are not on th...

Thu, September 12, 12:36 PM

Minimal Reaction to Mixed Data - Thu, September 12, 12:36 PM

Jobless Claims 230k vs 230k f'cast, 227k prev Core PPI MM 0.3 vs 0.2 f'cast, -0.2 prev Core PPY YY 2.4 vs 2.5 f'cast, 2.4 prev Jobless Claims was prob...

Wed, September 11, 7:42 PM

Does Today's Inflation Data Change Anything? - Wed, September 11, 7:42 PM

MBS Recap Does Today's Inflation Data Change Anything? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Wed, September 11, 4:18 PM

Losing Ground Again After Nice Recovery - Wed, September 11, 4:18 PM

This is more of a heads-up as opposed to an alert for most lenders considering the timing of rate sheets. In fact, some lenders who priced early in the day could still be considering P...

Wed, September 11, 3:37 PM

CPI Helps Flesh Out Rate Cut Odds, But Not Much Else - Wed, September 11, 3:37 PM

Heading into today's CPI data, there were valid doubts about the data's role as one of the two biggest market movers (the jobs report being the other). Those doubts proved to be well founde...

Wed, September 11, 12:38 PM

CPI Slightly Hotter. Bonds Selling Moderately - Wed, September 11, 12:38 PM

Core MM CPI 0.3 vs 0.2 f'cast unrounded 0.281 Core YY CPI 3.2 vs 3.2 f'cast, 3.2 prev Shelter CPI 0.5 vs 0.4 prev Bonds were slightly stronger head...

Tue, September 10, 8:26 PM

Will The Market Still Care About CPI? - Tue, September 10, 8:26 PM

MBS Recap Will The Market Still Care About CPI? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:25 PM...

Tue, September 10, 2:36 PM

So Far So Good as Bonds Wait on Data and Volatility - Tue, September 10, 2:36 PM

The new week is off to a nice, anti-climactic start. Monday morning's yields were slightly higher at first but fell into stronger territory by mid day. Today brought a milder repeat o...

Mon, September 9, 8:15 PM

Holding Last Week's Gains as Bonds Wait For Actionable Info - Mon, September 9, 8:15 PM

MBS Recap Holding Last Week's Gains as Bonds Wait For Actionable Info MBS Recap Ma...

Mon, September 9, 3:21 PM

Sideways Start. Auctions and Inflation in Focus - Mon, September 9, 3:21 PM

Despite heavy volume and volatility, Friday's trading session managed to conclude in roughly sideways territory. The new week is starting off on a calmer note with more directional tra...

Fri, September 6, 9:33 PM

Wild Ride on Jobs Day as Fed Speakers Steal The Show - Fri, September 6, 9:33 PM

MBS Recap Wild Ride on Jobs Day as Fed Speakers Steal The Show MBS Recap Matthew G...

Fri, September 6, 4:32 PM

Lenders Could Reprice in EITHER Direction - Fri, September 6, 4:32 PM

Here's one of those rare moments where markets have been volatile enough that the slower lenders could be moving one way while the jumpier lenders make the opposite move. In the current ...

Fri, September 6, 2:55 PM

Jobs Report Does Nothing to Resolve Fed Rate Cut Debate - Fri, September 6, 2:55 PM

At first glance, this morning's jobs report suggested a modest but clearly-defined increase in the likelihood of a 50bp rate cut from the Fed in 2 weeks. Headline nonfarm payrolls came in a...

Fri, September 6, 2:37 PM

Reversal Reversing (Bonds Turning Green) - Fri, September 6, 2:37 PM

While there's always a chance of another lead change on NFP days, let's hope this one sticks. Bonds are now squarely back into positive territory with 10yr yields down more than 3bps at 3.6...

Fri, September 6, 1:37 PM

Bonds Fully Erase Post-NFP Gains - Fri, September 6, 1:37 PM

This alert is the product of a slow-motion retracement back to unchanged levels. Actually, 10yr yields are now 1.5bps higher on the day at 3.744. MBS are still technically 1 t...

Fri, September 6, 12:36 PM

NFP 142k vs 160k, Unemployment Drops. Bonds Rallying - Fri, September 6, 12:36 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 142k vs 160k f'cast last month revised to 89k from 114k Unemployment Rate 4.2 vs 4.2 f'cast, 4.3 prev Earnings 0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast last month...

Thu, September 5, 8:54 PM

Jobs Data Poised to Influence Size of The Upcoming Rate Cut - Thu, September 5, 8:54 PM

MBS Recap Jobs Data Poised to Influence Size of The Upcoming Rate Cut MBS Recap Ma...

Thu, September 5, 4:03 PM

Mixed Bag Making For Mixed Morning - Thu, September 5, 4:03 PM

Thursday morning had the highest concentration of economic reports so far this week with ADP, Challenger, Claims, and two flavors of Services PMI data. The early employment metrics were wea...

Thu, September 5, 2:31 PM

Right on The Threshold of Negative Reprice Risk For Some Lenders - Thu, September 5, 2:31 PM

The selling that began after the ISM data has continued at a moderate pace. The short end of the yield curve is turning red and bringing MBS along for the ride. MBS are now "unchanged...

Thu, September 5, 2:07 PM

Losing Some Ground After Decent ISM Data - Thu, September 5, 2:07 PM

ISM Services PMI 51.5 vs 51.1 f'cast, 51.4 prev ISM Prices 57.3 vs 56.0 f'cast, 57.0 prev Bonds were coasting along with AM gains intact heading into the ISM data....

Thu, September 5, 12:37 PM

Slightly Stronger After ADP Employment - Thu, September 5, 12:37 PM

ADP Employment 99k vs 145k f'cast, 111k prev Challenger Layoffs 75k vs 26k prev Jobless Claims 227k vs 230k f'cast 232k prev Continued Claims ...

Wed, September 4, 8:20 PM

Persistent Rally After Data. More Data Ahead - Wed, September 4, 8:20 PM

MBS Recap Persistent Rally After Data. More Data Ahead MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Wed, September 4, 4:09 PM

Fewer Job Openings. Lower Bond Yields - Wed, September 4, 4:09 PM

Market movement continues suggesting increased focus on labor-related economic data. This morning's JOLTS (job openings and labor turnover survey) is the latest example. Job open...

Wed, September 4, 2:03 PM

Bonds Rallying on JOLTS Data - Wed, September 4, 2:03 PM

Job Openings 7.673m vs 8.100m f'cast last mo revised to 7.91 from 8.18 Job Quits 3.277 vs 3.282m prev (lower is better for bonds) bonds were slightly st...

Tue, September 3, 8:03 PM

No Major Reaction to Data, But Data Remains Relevant - Tue, September 3, 8:03 PM

MBS Recap No Major Reaction to Data, But Data Remains Relevant MBS Recap Matthew G...

Tue, September 3, 4:48 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Tue, September 3, 4:48 PM

MBS are still much stronger on the day, up 5 ticks (.16) in total, but have drifted down roughly an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Some of the jumpier lenders could technically c...

Tue, September 3, 2:28 PM