The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that's come out since then has everyone singing a different tune. This ...
If there was only one thing to know about the mortgage market this week, it would be that Wednesday's inflation data prompted one of biggest single day increases in mortgage rates in decades. If ...
Data dependent... That's a phrase that is all too prevalent in financial markets and among members of the Federal Reserve. It refers to the fact that economic data will guide the future pat...
With markets only open 3.5 days and without any top tier economic reports to influence rates, this week could have arguably been viewed as a 9 day weekend for traders. In fact, despite some...
This week's main event was Wednesday's Fed announcement, or more specifically, the dot plot.
What's a dot plot?
4 times a year, the Fed releases its best guess of where the Fed Funds Rate w...
Back in late 2023, we got in the car with the Federal Reserve with the promise of a trip to our favorite place: the land of lower interest rates. In 2024, we keep asking "are we there yet?" The m...
It was a hotly anticipated week for interest rates due to the arrival of the first batch of big ticket economic data since the Inflation report that came out on February 13th. This week's data wa...
This week was more active and interesting than the previous example with a few important economic reports helping rates avoid breaking their recent ceiling.
Using 10yr Treasury yields as a ben...
Between Monday's holiday market closure and the general absence of highly relevant economic reports, it was a fairly quiet week for interest rates and the housing market, but not without some pot...
Inflation is the biggest problem for interest rates these days and this week brought two reports that pushed rates higher. Both are released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and both pointed tow...
Last Thursday, Mortgage News Daily (MND) published an article titled: "Rates Right in Line With Long-Term Lows, But That Could Change on Friday." Indeed, rates ended up jumping in a big way--the ...
Interest rates have a long and reliable history of reacting to the jobs report more than any other monthly economic data and the most recent example sent mortgage rates screaming higher at the fa...
Over the past 2 months, speculation ramped up quickly regarding the pace and magnitude of Fed rate cuts in 2024. Next week brings the first Fed meeting that's in the realm of that speculation.
...
So far, 2024 has been distinctly different from the end of 2023. November and December saw rates move lower at one of the fastest paces in decades. In contrast, January has delivered a fairly con...
The much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released this week. For those seeking evidence that inflation will soon be back at the Fed's target level, it wasn't the triumph it might have ...
Seemingly overnight, there is widespread media attention on the spread between mortgage rates and the 10yr Treasury yield. There shouldn't be.
Why are we talking about the 10yr Treasury yield...
While this week was uneventful and while 2022 was more volatile in terms of movement in the housing/mortgage market, we can still reflect on 2023 as a year of extremes.
Incidentally, that thes...
The astonishing pace of the recent drop in interest rates has raised some questions regarding sustainability and justification, but we can clear them up with a single chart.
The Federal Reserv...
We came into this week expecting the Fed's Dot Plot to set the tone, or at least to create a good amount of movement in rates, and that's exactly what happened.
The dot plot refers to a chart ...
It was mostly a great week for mortgage rates with the average lender near the best levels in months through Thursday. Friday's jobs report pushed rates back up a bit, but not excessively. Next w...
It's been a good week for extremes in the housing market with rates at 3 month lows, pending home sales at "record" lows, and conforming loan limits up to record highs. Here's why at least two of...
NOTE: this is an early version of the weekly newsletter that normally comes out on Friday. There will be no newsletter on Friday due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Mortgage rates have fal...
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of two big, monthly economic reports that have the strongest track records of causing volatility for rates. This makes sense considering inflation is t...
While it's possible to accuse mortgage rates of experiencing volatility over the past few days, this week was exceptionally calm compared to last week. So "everything's relative," and relat...
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was at 23 year highs as recently as October 19th. It wasn't much lower by the start of present week. What a difference a few days make, especially th...
This past week brought the release of two housing reports that track the pace of home sales each month and they told distinctly different stories. Which one is telling the truth?
The reports i...
Mortgage rates finally broke the 8% ceiling this week after months of gradual upward movement in the 7% range. At the same time, Existing Home Sales fell to the lowest levels in more than a decad...
After hitting the highest levels in decades last week, mortgage rates dropped sharply at the beginning of this week. At first glance, this was a classic flight to safety following the outbreak of...
Rates were already high coming into this week. As of last Friday, that meant an average 30yr fixed rate just under 7.5%. As of this Friday, we're closer to 8%.
Certain lenders may be quot...
It's nearly impossible to consume any news these days without coming across the government shutdown. As of Friday afternoon, the shutdown looks like it will be a thing. Even if it's miracul...
This week's main event was the scheduled policy announcement from the Fed. As was the case two meetings ago, the Fed opted to hold its policy rate unchanged, but almost every other interest rate ...
In and of itself, this week wasn't too bad for mortgage rates. Things got a bit worse overall, but the change from last week was minimal with the average lender moving up 0.07% from last Friday.&...
While it's impossible to predict the future when it comes to financial markets, it's usually possible to identify the events that have higher potential to cause bigger swings. Other times, volati...
Depending on the company you keep over this Labor Day weekend, you might hear that rates are high, housing in the verge of collapse, and the economy is headed for a hard, recessionary landing. Or...
As the week began, the bond market continued heading toward higher rates at the same pace seen in the previous week. This made for the highest mortgage rates in more than 2 decades on both ...
At this point "high rates" are old news. We were already close to hitting the highest levels in more than 20 years last week, so it wasn't a huge surprise to achieve that dubious distinction this...
This was supposed to be the week where a key inflation report would cast a vote on the fate of interest rate momentum. The vote was ostensibly friendly but rates surged higher anyway. What gives?...
Interest rates of all types have been under immense pressure since the beginning of 2022. That's when the Fed began raising rates at the fastest pace in decades to the highest levels in decades i...
It's no mystery that the housing and mortgage markets are facing their fair share of headwinds in 2023, but some blow harder than others. One of the most complicated headwinds is that of Fe...
Inventory! That's been a buzzword for the housing market for more than a decade, but it's been especially prevalent in 2023 as the excuse for slower home sales. How good of an excuse is it?...
Mortgage rates spiked abruptly last week after several economic reports showed the economy doing better than expected. Now this week, key inflation data showed prices falling faster than expected...
Until a few weeks ago, it looked like we might have seen the last of 7% mortgage rates, but the last 2 weeks have been brutal. The culprit has been a collection of several scheduled economic repo...
Mortgage rates have been hovering in the high 6's for weeks, but they broke above 7% on Thursday. At the same time, multiple news outlets reported a 30yr fixed rate of 6.71%. Who's lying?
Whil...
A majority of the housing market data on any given month tends to come out mostly on the same week. This was that week and the takeaway was that the housing market could be doing worse. Some migh...
Rates may not be as high as they were several months ago or as low as they were 5 weeks ago, but they're close enough to either boundary that the threat (or promise) of returning is palpable. For...
In a surprising turn of events, this week's biggest market mover for interest rates was a policy announcement by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The event was credited for prompting a re-think of the U...
After dominating the news cycle for weeks, the debt ceiling issue is suddenly resolved and the bond market doesn't seem to care. The jobs report proved to be far more relevant, but with half of i...
It was nearly impossible to avoid news regarding the debt ceiling this week, but how much does it actually matter?
Let's make sure we're on the same page first. What follows are a few NO...
The debt ceiling debate is all over the news, but it's a different ceiling is commanding more of the bond market's attention. Still, we wouldn't say the debt ceiling is irrelevant, so let's...
Scroll down far enough on the list of Webster's definitions of the word "consolidate," and you'll find "to form together into a compact mass." Financial markets appropriated that definition...
