MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Losing Some Ground After ISM Data - Fri, May 3, 2:15 PM

ISM Non Manufacturing 49.4 vs 52.0 f'cast, 51.4 prev ISM Prices 59.2 vs 55.0 f'cast, 53.4 prev Bonds had rallied well after the jobs report with 10yr yields as low ...

Fri, May 3, 12:33 PM

Big Rally on Only Modestly Weaker NFP - Fri, May 3, 12:33 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 175k vs 243k f'cast, 315k prev Unemployment Rate 3.9 vs 3.8 f'cast/prev Wages 0.2 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.3 prev This is a fairly straightfo...

Thu, May 2, 8:26 PM

Counterintuitive Rally And Asymmetric Risk - Thu, May 2, 8:26 PM

MBS Recap Counterintuitive Rally And Asymmetric Risk MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:...

Thu, May 2, 4:20 PM

Placeholder Day Ahead of Jobs Report - Thu, May 2, 4:20 PM

Thursday was always destined to be the least interesting day of current week due to its lack of meaningful calendar events, but that doesn't mean we can't see a bit of volatility for other reason...

Thu, May 2, 12:34 PM

Stronger Overnight With Small Bump in Yields After Jobless Claims - Thu, May 2, 12:34 PM

Jobless Claims 208k vs 212k f'cast, 208k prev Continued Claims 1774k vs 1800k f'cast, 1774k prev Jobless Claims data isn't much of a market mover these days, but t...

Wed, May 1, 8:49 PM

Decent Data and Palatable Powell - Wed, May 1, 8:49 PM

MBS Recap Decent Data and Palatable Powell MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:47 PM ...

Wed, May 1, 8:44 PM

MBS More Than an Eighth Off Highs, But High Bar For Reprice Risk - Wed, May 1, 8:44 PM

Bonds have gradually corrected after the Powell press conference rally. 10yr yields are up to 4.636 from lows of 4.58, but that's still nearly a 5bp gain on the day. MBS are still up ...

Wed, May 1, 6:52 PM

Bigger Gains During Powell Press Conference - Wed, May 1, 6:52 PM

Powell's press conference is in progress and things could conceivably shift at some point, but so far, it's been a good thing for bonds. Reason being: markets were looking for a read on whethe...

Wed, May 1, 6:05 PM

First Move is Slightly Stronger After Fed Announcement - Wed, May 1, 6:05 PM

Fed notes "lack of further progress toward inflation goal." Fed says risks to achieving goals "have moved" instead of "are moving" into better balance QT tapering confirmed Treasury ca...

Wed, May 1, 6:00 PM

Old vs New Fed Statement With Changes Highlighted - Wed, May 1, 6:00 PM

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation h...

Wed, May 1, 2:05 PM

Weaker ISM and JOLTS Offset by Higher Prices; Light Reaction So Far - Wed, May 1, 2:05 PM

ISM Manufacturing 49.2 vs 50.0 f'cast, 50.3 prev ISM Prices 60.9 vs 55.0 f'cast, 55.8 prev Job Openings 8.488 vs 8.690m f'cast, 8.813m prev Bonds had ...

Wed, May 1, 12:57 PM

ADP and Treasury Refunding Announcement Do No Harm - Wed, May 1, 12:57 PM

Bonds were roughly unchanged overnight, but began to improve modestly after the ADP data. Considering the numbers were higher than expected, that may be more of a relief bid, or even "new m...

Tue, April 30, 8:39 PM

More Ammo For Unfriendly Fed, But Data is at Least as Important - Tue, April 30, 8:39 PM

MBS Recap More Ammo For a Hawkish Fed, But Data is at Least as Important MBS Recap &nb...

Tue, April 30, 6:45 PM

Weakest Levels of The Day; Modest Reprice Risk - Tue, April 30, 6:45 PM

There's no big, new drama in the bond market this afternoon--just a slow bleed that takes us to the weakest levels of the day just now. 10yr yields are up 6.3 bps at 4.677 and MBS are down just o...

Tue, April 30, 4:26 PM

More Data, More Inflation, More Weakness in Bonds - Tue, April 30, 4:26 PM

Steering clear of unfriendly economic data has been an increasingly challenging task for the bond market in April. While it might be an overstatement to say we're going out with a bang, tod...

Tue, April 30, 12:35 PM

Losing Ground Quickly After ECI - Tue, April 30, 12:35 PM

Employment Cost Index 12 vs 1.0 f'cast, 0.9 prev There was a time when we wouldn't have even put ECI on the econ calendar, but this morning's reaction brings it full circle as a ...

Mon, April 29, 8:02 PM

Decent Resilience in Spite of a Few Headwinds - Mon, April 29, 8:02 PM

MBS Recap Decent Resilience in Spite of a Few Headwinds MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Mon, April 29, 7:06 PM

Losing Ground on Treasury Issuance Update - Mon, April 29, 7:06 PM

Treasury's just-released borrowing estimates for Q2 are higher than the market expected. While we don't yet know the breakdown of the increases (one assumes they will be weighted toward sho...

Mon, April 29, 3:17 PM

Stronger Start Despite Yen Intervention. Busy Week Ahead - Mon, April 29, 3:17 PM

Monday is one of the quietest days of the week although there will be a potentially important update at 3pm when Treasury releases borrowing estimates for the upcoming quarterly auction cycle.&nb...

Fri, April 26, 9:21 PM

Decent Recovery After Friday's PCE Numbers Clarify Thursday's PCE Numbers - Fri, April 26, 9:21 PM

MBS Recap Decent Recovery After Friday's PCE Numbers Clarify Thursday's PCE Numbers MBS Recap &nbs...

Fri, April 26, 4:25 PM

Deep Dive on Thursday and Friday's PCE Discrepancy and Market Reaction - Fri, April 26, 4:25 PM

WARNING: once you get past the 1st paragraph here, things start to get a bit "mathy" and esoteric. The takeaway is that there's an actual way to reconcile today's 0.3 vs 0.3 monthly core PC...

Fri, April 26, 12:39 PM

Core PCE Surprises By Sticking With Consensus - Fri, April 26, 12:39 PM

Monthly Core PCE 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.3 prev Annual Core PCE 2.8 vs 2.6 f'cast, 2.8 prev After yesterday's somewhat dire implications from quarterly data, today's m...

Thu, April 25, 8:01 PM

Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data - Thu, April 25, 8:01 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data MBS Recap Matthe...

Thu, April 25, 3:37 PM

Quarterly PCE Data Causing Concern Over Tomorrow's Monthly Numbers - Thu, April 25, 3:37 PM

It's a bit of a tricky morning in the bond market when it comes to reconciling the data with the market movement. At face value the headlines make a better case for lower rates with GDP at ...

Thu, April 25, 12:38 PM

Bonds Losing Ground After 8:30am Data, Mainly PCE Prices - Thu, April 25, 12:38 PM

Jobless Claims 207k vs 214k f'cast, 212k prev Continued Claims 1781k s 1814k f'cast GDP 1.6 vs 2.5 f'cast, 3.4 prev Q1 PCE Prices 3.7 vs 3.4 f...

Wed, April 24, 8:43 PM

Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data - Wed, April 24, 8:43 PM

MBS Recap Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data MBS Recap Matthew G...

Wed, April 24, 2:31 PM

The Other Side of Sideways - Wed, April 24, 2:31 PM

The bond market has been decidedly more sideways after hitting longer-term yield highs last Tuesday. 10yr Treasuries have been a relatively narrow range since then, mostly respecting a ceil...

Wed, April 24, 1:05 PM

Overnight Weakness Remains After Durable Goods Data - Wed, April 24, 1:05 PM

Durable Goods 2.6 vs 2.5 f'cast last month revised from 1.3 to 0.7 Durables, excluding defense and aircraft 0.2 vs 0.2 f'cast last month revised from 0.7 to 0.4 ...

Tue, April 23, 8:35 PM

Straightforward Gains After PMI Data - Tue, April 23, 8:35 PM

MBS Recap Straightforward Gains After PMI Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:35 PM ...

Tue, April 23, 3:56 PM

Bonds Showing Strong Desire For Econ Data - Tue, April 23, 3:56 PM

Is it any surprise to see a strong reaction to economic data when the phrase "data dependent" has come to unequivocally rule all other approaches to understanding the interest rate outlook? ...

Tue, April 23, 1:51 PM

Nice Little Rally on PMI Data - Tue, April 23, 1:51 PM

S&P Services PMI 50.9 vs 52.0 f'cast S&P Manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs 52.0 f'cast The S&P PMI data (previously "Markit") has increasingly been a tradeable ...

Mon, April 22, 8:19 PM

Boring Monday Keeps The Focus on Next Week - Mon, April 22, 8:19 PM

MBS Recap Boring Monday Keeps The Focus on Next Week MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:...

Mon, April 22, 12:47 PM

Slow Start to What May be a Slow Week - Mon, April 22, 12:47 PM

It's no secret that a vast majority of bond market movement these days occurs in response to a small handful of economic reports and the Fed's quarterly updates on the rate hike outlook (via the ...

Fri, April 19, 8:32 PM

Sometimes Sideways is The Best Case Scenario - Fri, April 19, 8:32 PM

MBS Recap Sometimes Sideways is The Best Case Scenario MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Fri, April 19, 2:06 PM

Gradually Pulling Back From Flight to Safety Bid Overnight - Fri, April 19, 2:06 PM

The overnight session began with a very clear flight to safety in stocks (sell) and bonds (buy) on headlines regarding increased hostilities between Iran and Israel. There have been plenty ...

Thu, April 18, 7:55 PM

Good News and Bad News About Today's Selling - Thu, April 18, 7:55 PM

MBS Recap Good News and Bad News About Today's Selling MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Thu, April 18, 4:54 PM

Weakest Levels; Steady Selling - Thu, April 18, 4:54 PM

This isn't an alert in the sense that some new, quick selling has taken place. Rather, bonds have simply continued a pattern of gradual selling since 10am. Over that time, 10yr yields...

Thu, April 18, 4:09 PM

Bonds Are Back to Their Old Ways - Thu, April 18, 4:09 PM

After the best day in a month and a half on Wednesday, the bond market is back to its recent habit of selling off and moving toward higher yields. It looked the losses were set to be more m...

Thu, April 18, 1:58 PM

Weaker With Williams - Thu, April 18, 1:58 PM

The timing of Fed comments this morning is unfortunate in that it lines up closely with the 9:30am NYSE open. Fed Funds Futures offer some confirmation that Williams later comments (especia...

Thu, April 18, 12:36 PM

Losing Just a Bit of Ground After Philly Fed Data - Thu, April 18, 12:36 PM

Jobless Claims 212k vs 215k f'cast, 212k prev Philly Fed Index 15.5 vs 1.5 f'cast, 3.2 prev Philly Fed Prices 23.0 vs 3.70 prev Bonds were initially a...

Wed, April 17, 8:32 PM

Too Soon to Say Higher Yields Are Bringing Buyers? - Wed, April 17, 8:32 PM

MBS Recap Too Soon to Say Higher Yields Are Bringing Buyers? MBS Recap Matthew Gra...

Wed, April 17, 3:16 PM

Token Bounce - Wed, April 17, 3:16 PM

The bond market is getting off to a stronger start today despite an absence of any new motivations in the news or economic calendar. In fact, the calendar is essentially empty when it comes...

Wed, April 17, 1:41 PM

Nice Little AM Rally - Wed, April 17, 1:41 PM

In a departure from recent norms, the overnight session was somewhat constructive for bonds. The gains weren't massive, but they were notable for being something other than losses. Vo...

Tue, April 16, 8:54 PM

Powell Confirms What The Bond Market Already Knew - Tue, April 16, 8:54 PM

MBS Recap Powell Confirms What The Bond Market Already Knew MBS Recap Matthew Grah...

Tue, April 16, 5:34 PM

Negative Reprice Risk For Some Lenders as Powell Speaks - Tue, April 16, 5:34 PM

Bonds were already giving up some ground in the 2 hours leading up to today's Powell speech, but they are selling a bit more after the following comment: POWELL: RECENT DATA SHOWS LACK OF FURT...

Tue, April 16, 3:25 PM

More Losses. When Will Buyers Be Enticed? - Tue, April 16, 3:25 PM

Yesterday's commentary pulled an occasionally used phrase off the shelf by referring to recent weakness as a "repricing" in the broader bond market. This is an intentional migration from on...

Tue, April 16, 1:27 PM

Weaker Overnight and More Selling Just Now - Tue, April 16, 1:27 PM

Industrial Production 0.4 vs 0.4 f'cast Last month revised up to 0.4 from 0.1 Industrial production isn't one of the reports typically considered to be reliable market movers....

Mon, April 15, 7:52 PM