MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

MBS Down Just Over an Eighth From Highs - Fri, October 11, 8:14 PM

This is more of a heads up for those of you floating with lenders who'd previously repriced for the better when MBS hit highs earlier this afternoon. Those lenders are now seeing an eighth ...

Fri, October 11, 7:58 PM

Boring Week For Bonds and Next Week Isn't Much More Promising - Fri, October 11, 7:58 PM

MBS Recap Boring Week For Bonds and Next Week Isn't Much More Promising MBS Recap ...

Fri, October 11, 3:14 PM

No Whammies in The Data - Fri, October 11, 3:14 PM

When it comes to economic data with any real significance, today only offered two reports: PPI and Consumer Sentiment. Neither have an especially stunning pedigree of market movement capabi...

Fri, October 11, 12:45 PM

Overnight Losses Increasing After PPI Data - Fri, October 11, 12:45 PM

M/M Core PPI 0.2 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.3 prev Y/Y Core PPI 2.8 vs 2.7 f'cast, 2.4 prev Bonds were already slightly weaker after a slow burn in the overnight session.&nbs...

Thu, October 10, 8:53 PM

Bonds Turn Green Despite Plenty of Volatility - Thu, October 10, 8:53 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Turn Green Despite Plenty of Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Thu, October 10, 4:58 PM

MBS at Lows After Bostic Comments - Thu, October 10, 4:58 PM

BOSTIC: I’M OPEN TO NOT MOVING AT ONE OF THE LAST TWO MEETINGS IF THE DATA COMES IN AS I EXPECT - WSJ BOSTIC: TOTALLY COMFORTABLE WITH SKIPPING A MEETING IF THE DATA SUGGESTS THAT’...

Thu, October 10, 3:34 PM

Mixed Reaction to Mixed Data - Thu, October 10, 3:34 PM

At first glance, it looks as if the bond market will make it through Thursday morning without being too worse for the wear. When the monthly core CPI reading flashed 0.1 higher than expecte...

Thu, October 10, 2:44 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Thu, October 10, 2:44 PM

Bonds have gradually backed away from the morning's neutral stance, perhaps with some pre-auction anxiety, or in response to Fed comments. 10yr yields are up 2bps at 4.099. MBS are now d...

Thu, October 10, 12:38 PM

Big Pop in Jobless Claims Helping Offset Higher CPI - Thu, October 10, 12:38 PM

Jobless Claims 258k vs 230k f'cast, 225k prev Core CPI M/M 0.3 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.3 prev Y/Y Core CPI 3.3 vs 3.2 f'cast, 3.2 prev Bonds were sligh...

Wed, October 9, 7:57 PM

New Lows For MBS; More Reprice Risk - Wed, October 9, 7:57 PM

5.0 MBS are now down a full quarter point on the day and as much as 6 ticks (.19) from some lenders' rate sheet print times. Negative reprice risk is slightly higher now, but offset somewha...

Wed, October 9, 7:45 PM

Don't Expect Salvation From CPI - Wed, October 9, 7:45 PM

MBS Recap Don't Expect Salvation From CPI MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:45 PM ...

Wed, October 9, 4:24 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth From AM Highs - Wed, October 9, 4:24 PM

MBS are now down 6 ticks (.19) on the day and nearly as much from the AM highs. Lenders who priced earlier in the day are seeing an eighth of a point of weakness. As such, the jumpies...

Wed, October 9, 2:09 PM

Some Pre-Auction Anxiety and a Million Fed Speeches - Wed, October 9, 2:09 PM

This week's economic calendar is choked with Fed speeches and most of them are happening today. Collectively, those will be more relevant than the release of the Minutes from the most recen...

Tue, October 8, 8:31 PM

Worst is Over. Now What? - Tue, October 8, 8:31 PM

MBS Recap Worst is Over. Now What? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:30 PM ...

Tue, October 8, 3:13 PM

NFP Bond Rout Starting to Level Off, Hopefully - Tue, October 8, 3:13 PM

Friday's NFP gave the bond market a solid whack, sending yields quickly higher. Momentum remained intact over the weekend and through Monday. Overseas markets were more willing to try...

Mon, October 7, 8:08 PM

Bonds Undergoing a Bit of a Reset - Mon, October 7, 8:08 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Undergoing a Bit of a Reset MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:06 PM ...

Mon, October 7, 2:27 PM

More Pain. Fewer Surprises - Mon, October 7, 2:27 PM

Here's a repeat of the lock/float considerations posted on Friday after the jobs report: "Friday's strong jobs report and resulting bond market rout change the calculus for rate expectations unti...

Fri, October 4, 8:45 PM

Who Lied About Jobs Numbers? - Fri, October 4, 8:45 PM

MBS Recap Who Lied About Jobs Numbers? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:43 PM ...

Fri, October 4, 7:09 PM

Negative Reprices Are Possible For Some Lenders - Fri, October 4, 7:09 PM

Nothing new or interesting is happening in terms of data or headlines, but bonds are drifting to even lower lows. MBS are now down almost 5/8ths and the average lender is seeing more than a...

Fri, October 4, 3:32 PM

Huge Beat in Jobs Report; Bonds Reeling - Fri, October 4, 3:32 PM

It is a very simple day for the bond market. There was a ton of anticipation for today's jobs report after the past two iterations raised concerns about flagging labor market conditions.&nb...

Fri, October 4, 12:32 PM

Jobs Report Crushes Expectations. Here Come Higher Rates - Fri, October 4, 12:32 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 254k vs 140k f'cast, 159k prev Unemployment Rate 4.1 vs 4.2 f'cast Wages 0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast last month revised up to 0.5 Nothing go...

Thu, October 3, 9:14 PM

ISM Makes For Negative NFP Lead-Off - Thu, October 3, 9:14 PM

MBS Recap ISM Makes For Negative NFP Lead-Off MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:13 PM ...

Thu, October 3, 6:51 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Thu, October 3, 6:51 PM

There are no new developments or big ticket market movers in play--just a general drift into weaker territory, perhaps with a hint of anxiety that the sum of economic data tilts risks toward a st...

Thu, October 3, 2:05 PM

Additional Losses After Mixed ISM Data (UPDATED) - Thu, October 3, 2:05 PM

CORRECTION: The initial version of this alert incorrectly listed the headline ISM PMI as 55.2 vs 55.4. It is corrected below: ISM Services 54.9 vs 51.7 f'cast, 51.5 prev ISM E...

Thu, October 3, 1:46 PM

The Consolidation Game is Over - Thu, October 3, 1:46 PM

There are some labor market reports that cause some concern about a weaker job market. And while Jobless Claims is often thought to be a leading indicator, it is not one of those reports.&n...

Wed, October 2, 8:02 PM

Wednesday's Market Movement Raises Stakes for Friday - Wed, October 2, 8:02 PM

MBS Recap Wednesday's Market Movement Raises Stakes for Friday MBS Recap Matthew G...

Wed, October 2, 4:00 PM

Fairly Pronounced Reaction to ADP Data - Wed, October 2, 4:00 PM

The Fed's been saying it for several months and the market has been trading it accordingly for just as long: the focus has clearly shifted away from inflation and toward the labor market. T...

Wed, October 2, 12:26 PM

Weaker After ADP Employment Data - Wed, October 2, 12:26 PM

ADP Employment 143k vs 120k f'cast, 103k prev Bonds were already slightly weaker in the overnight session and have extended losses in the wake of the ADP data. This highlig...

Tue, October 1, 8:26 PM

Bonds Unexpectedly Forced to Focus on War Instead of Data - Tue, October 1, 8:26 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Unexpectedly Forced to Focus on War Instead of Data MBS Recap Matt...

Tue, October 1, 6:01 PM

MBS Down to Lows of The Day - Tue, October 1, 6:01 PM

MBS were at the highs of the day less than an hour ago but have quickly fallen to the lows as missile strikes in the Middle East are not immediately resulting in additional escalation. Earl...

Tue, October 1, 3:30 PM

Mixed Reaction to Mixed Data After Early Flight to Safety - Tue, October 1, 3:30 PM

This morning's slate of economic data is certainly higher-profile compared to yesterday with JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing always capable of moving the needle. Ironically, it was geopolitical...

Tue, October 1, 1:49 PM

Bonds Rallying on Israel/Iran Headlines - Tue, October 1, 1:49 PM

The following unconfirmed newswire is causing a flight to safety in the bond market: UNITED STATES HAS INDICATIONS THAT IRAN IS PREPARING TO IMMINENTLY LAUNCH A BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK AGAINS...

Mon, September 30, 9:26 PM

Moderate Losses For Bonds as Powell Says Fed Isn't in a Hurry to Cut - Mon, September 30, 9:26 PM

MBS Recap Moderate Losses For Bonds as Powell Stays " Hawkish " MBS Recap Matthew ...

Mon, September 30, 6:14 PM

Reprice Risk Increasing - Mon, September 30, 6:14 PM

Bonds are losing ground more quickly after Powell said the Fed isn't in a hurry to cut rates quickly. MBS now down more than a quarter on the day and nearly a quarter point from AM rate she...

Mon, September 30, 4:21 PM

Big Data Week With Jobs Report on Friday - Mon, September 30, 4:21 PM

Momentum has been building and focus has been shifting. After a few years of inflation reports giving the jobs report a run for its money in terms relevance to the bond market, things have ...

Mon, September 30, 3:16 PM

MBS Down About an Eighth From Highs - Mon, September 30, 3:16 PM

Bonds began the day in weaker territory but attempted to bounce heading into the 10am hour. They've been fading again since then and are now down 7 ticks (.22) on the day and roughly an eig...

Fri, September 27, 9:22 PM

Finally Cooling Off Just in Time to Heat Up Again - Fri, September 27, 9:22 PM

MBS Recap Finally Cooling Off Just in Time to Heat Up Again MBS Recap Matthew Grah...

Fri, September 27, 4:05 PM

Inflation Data No Longer The Big To-Do, But At Least It's Not Hurting - Fri, September 27, 4:05 PM

Just a few months ago, the big ticket inflation reports were just as relevant as the jobs report in terms of their ability to cause movement in the bond market. As CPI/PCE calmed down over ...

Fri, September 27, 12:36 PM

PCE Comes in Just Below Forecasts. Bonds Aren't Mad - Fri, September 27, 12:36 PM

M/M Core PCE 0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.2 prev Unrounded 0.13 Y/Y Core PCE 2.7 vs 2.7 f'cast, 2.6 prev PCE inflation data only wishes it could be in the same league as...

Thu, September 26, 9:14 PM

More Resilient Today, But It's Still All About Data - Thu, September 26, 9:14 PM

MBS Recap More Resilient Today, But It's Still All About Data MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Thu, September 26, 3:41 PM

Stronger Data Saps Overnight Gains - Thu, September 26, 3:41 PM

At the risk of tempting fate by discussing a leveling-off of the post-Fed correction again, the overnight session saw the most compelling case yet for the correction having run its course. ...

Thu, September 26, 2:32 PM

MBS Down to New Lows - Thu, September 26, 2:32 PM

After feigning a correction back to unchanged levels, bonds are on the run again. 10yr yields are now up 3.7bps to the highs of the day at 3.82. MBS are down more than an eighth on the d...

Thu, September 26, 12:35 PM

Losing Overnight Gains After Stronger Claims Data - Thu, September 26, 12:35 PM

Jobless Claims 218k vs 225k f'cast, 219k prev Durable Goods 0.0 vs -2.6 f'cast, 9.8 prev Core Durable Goods 0.2 vs 0.0 f'cast, -0.2 prev GDP (Q2, revisio...

Wed, September 25, 8:49 PM

Is it Time to Worry About Bond Market Losses? - Wed, September 25, 8:49 PM

MBS Recap Is it Time to Worry About Bond Market Losses? MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Wed, September 25, 5:28 PM

Modest Additional Weakness - Wed, September 25, 5:28 PM

(Edited: previous version had 5yr yield stats instead of 10yr) Negative reprice risk is now slightly higher than at the time of the last alert. MBS are down several more ticks--9 on the ...

Wed, September 25, 3:35 PM

Bonds Remain Tentative Without Fresh Supply of Downbeat Data - Wed, September 25, 3:35 PM

The bond market is in a bit of a lull with any excess buying demand flowing to the shorter end of the yield curve. Meanwhile, the long end has been drifting slightly higher in yield in a fa...

Wed, September 25, 3:33 PM

New Lows For MBS - Wed, September 25, 3:33 PM

While there hasn't been any decisive selling sprees or clear connections to news/data, bonds have been leaking to weaker levels in fits and starts throughout the morning. MBS just hit new l...

Tue, September 24, 8:46 PM