MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Why Bonds Rallied After CPI (And Why They Reversed Course an Hour Later) - Wed, 3:52 PM

Today's headline and core CPI readings were both perfectly in line with forecasts. After the data came out, bonds rallied and Fed Funds Futures moved to price in a near certainty of a Fed r...

Wed, 3:33 PM

MBS More Than an Eighth Below Highs - Wed, 3:33 PM

Bonds are done with econ data for the day but have nonetheless found a reason to turn around and give up a noticeable amount of this morning's gains. Perhaps 10yr Traders "remembered" they ...

Wed, 1:46 PM

CPI Right on The Screws. Bonds Rallying a Bit - Wed, 1:46 PM

Core M/M CPI 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.3 prev unrounded, 0.308 Core Y/Y CPI 3.3 vs 3.3 f'cast, 3.3 prev Shelter CPI M/M 0.336 vs .382 prev Bonds h...

Tue, 9:13 PM

Ready For Anything After Pre-CPI Consolidation - Tue, 9:13 PM

MBS Recap Ready For Anything After Pre-CPI Consolidation MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Tue, 3:40 PM

Inconsequential Weakness Part 2 - Tue, 3:40 PM

Yesterday's closing commentary also noted "inconsequential weakness," and there's not really a better way to refer to this morning's modest losses. Once again, they arrive in excruciatingly...

Mon, 10:02 PM

Inconsequential Weakness - Mon, 10:02 PM

MBS Recap Inconsequential Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:02 PM ...

Mon, 8:29 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From AM Levels - Mon, 8:29 PM

MBS are now down an eighth of a point from AM rate sheet print times. As such, the jumpiest lenders could technically justify a negative reprice, but bonds are generally holding in a more s...

Mon, 3:38 PM

Reinforcing The Range - Mon, 3:38 PM

Up until last Friday, 10yr yields closed at 4.17% for 5 days in a row. While that's technically "resistance," we're not complaining considering that's more than 30bps below the highs from 2 weeks...

Fri, December 6, 9:57 PM

Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week. Has The Tide Turned? - Fri, December 6, 9:57 PM

MBS Recap Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week. Has The Tide Turned? MBS Recap Matthew...

Fri, December 6, 4:10 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From AM Highs - Fri, December 6, 4:10 PM

Bonds are still in stronger territory on the day, but MBS are now down an eighth of a point from some lenders' morning rate sheet print times. The jumpiest lenders could technically justify...

Fri, December 6, 2:52 PM

Why Are Bonds Rallying Despite a Seemingly Decent Jobs Report? - Fri, December 6, 2:52 PM

We all know that today's jobs report is the most important economic data on an given month. We also know that a higher payroll count tends to be bad for bonds/rates. So why are bonds rallyi...

Fri, December 6, 1:36 PM

Payrolls at 227k vs 200k Forecast, Minimal Movement So Far - Fri, December 6, 1:36 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 227k vs 200k f'cast, 36k prev Unemployment Rates 4.2 vs 4.2 f'cast, 4.1 prev Participation Rate 62.5 vs 62.7 f'cast, 62.6 prev ...

Thu, December 5, 9:10 PM

Calm Week So Far, But All Bets Are Off After Jobs Report - Thu, December 5, 9:10 PM

MBS Recap Calm Week So Far, But All Bets Are Off After Jobs Report MBS Recap Matth...

Thu, December 5, 1:46 PM

Jobless Claims Aren't as High as They Seem - Thu, December 5, 1:46 PM

Jobless Claims 224k vs 215k f'cast, 213k prev Continued Claims 1871k vs 1910k f'cast, 1896k prev At first glance, the 224k figure in jobless claims may seem l...

Wed, December 4, 9:34 PM

No Whammies From Powell as Rates Rally on ISM Data - Wed, December 4, 9:34 PM

MBS Recap No Whammies From Powell as Rates Rally on ISM Data MBS Recap Matthew Gra...

Wed, December 4, 5:00 PM

Friendly Data Helping Erase Overnight Weakness - Wed, December 4, 5:00 PM

Bonds drifted steadily higher in yield during the overnight session with most of the weakness seen after European markets opened. The net effect was roughly 4bp increase in 10yr yields and an eig...

Wed, December 4, 3:03 PM

Stronger Gains After Weaker ISM Data - Wed, December 4, 3:03 PM

ISM Services 52.1 vs 55.5 f'cast, 56.0 prev ISM Services PMI is today's biggest economic data and it is also the biggest miss. Business activity (a sub component of the dat...

Wed, December 4, 1:18 PM

ADP Employment Right in Line With Forecast - Wed, December 4, 1:18 PM

ADP Employment 146k vs 150k f'cast, 233k prev Bonds were moderately weaker overnight but have bounced back ever so slightly after this data. MBS are down about an eighth of...

Tue, December 3, 8:53 PM

Friendly Fed Comments No Match For The Range - Tue, December 3, 8:53 PM

MBS Recap Friendly Fed Comments No Match For The Range MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Tue, December 3, 4:04 PM

Weakest Levels of The Day - Tue, December 3, 4:04 PM

Selling has continued fairly steadily, but at a slow pace following the JOLTS data. MBS are now down 2 ticks (.06) on the day and just over an eighth of a point from the AM highs (which coi...

Tue, December 3, 3:11 PM

Giving up Some Early Gains After JOLTS Data - Tue, December 3, 3:11 PM

Job Openings 7.744m vs 7.480m f'cast, 7.372 prev Job Quits 3.326m vs 3.071m prev Bonds like it when job openings and job "quits" are falling (or coming in much lowe...

Tue, December 3, 2:57 PM

South Korea... Martial Law... And a Bond Rally? - Tue, December 3, 2:57 PM

Of all of the motivations in all the markets, this one had to walk into ours. Or perhaps it rolled in on tank tracks. Just over an hour ago, South Korea's president declared martial l...

Mon, December 2, 9:42 PM

Bonds Hold Vast Majority of Last Week's Gains - Mon, December 2, 9:42 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Hold Vast Majority of Last Week's Gains MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Mon, December 2, 2:18 PM

Morning Weakness a Simple Factor of Positioning - Mon, December 2, 2:18 PM

It can be a bit tricky to understand the roll of various forms of positioning when it comes to otherwise inexplicable movement in the bond market. It's also a fairly vague term that can ref...

Wed, November 27, 8:17 PM

Stronger Bonds, Before and After (And Regardless of) Economic Data - Wed, November 27, 8:17 PM

MBS Recap Stronger Bonds, Before and After (And Regardless of) Economic Data MBS Recap &...

Wed, November 27, 3:27 PM

Near Weakest Levels - Wed, November 27, 3:27 PM

MBS are now up only 3 ticks (.09) on the day after being up just over 7 ticks (.22) around some lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, the jumpiest lenders could be right on the edge of ...

Wed, November 27, 2:18 PM

Thanksgiving Nap Time Comes Early, Thanks to AM Data - Wed, November 27, 2:18 PM

Although this morning contained the week's most active slate of economic data, it has completely failed to inspire even the most modest of responses in the bond market, both in terms of volume an...

Tue, November 26, 8:17 PM

No Major Data. No Major Drama - Tue, November 26, 8:17 PM

MBS Recap No Major Data. No Major Drama MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 2:46 PM ...

Tue, November 26, 3:25 PM

MBS down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Tue, November 26, 3:25 PM

While none of the weakness is driven by economic data, bonds have been selling off gradually and steadily so far in the AM hours. After coming into the day 1 tick (0.03) stronger, MBS are now dow...

Tue, November 26, 2:50 PM

Bonds Letting Off Some of Yesterday's Steam - Tue, November 26, 2:50 PM

Monday brought a rare event for the bond market in the recent context as yields fell throughout the day and never really thought about bouncing. It was all the more uncommon because the rally was...

Mon, November 25, 9:05 PM

Come For The Big Rally, Stay For The Staying Power - Mon, November 25, 9:05 PM

MBS Recap Come For The Big Rally, Stay For The Staying Power MBS Recap Matthew Gra...

Mon, November 25, 1:54 PM

Strong Overnight Gains. Bonds Like Bessent? - Mon, November 25, 1:54 PM

Of all of Trump's political appointees, Treasury Secretary is the most consequential for the bond market ("Treasury" is right in the title, after all!). Bessent got the nod on Friday night after ...

Fri, November 22, 9:26 PM

Getting Back to Normal, For a Few Days Anyway - Fri, November 22, 9:26 PM

MBS Recap Getting Back to Normal, For a Few Days Anyway MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Fri, November 22, 5:03 PM

Evidence Continues For The Sideways Slide - Fri, November 22, 5:03 PM

The bond market has been forced to take the victories that are within reach. As November winds down, the best victory we could have hoped for was the absence of any additional defeat. ...

Fri, November 22, 3:00 PM

Slightly Weaker After PMI Data, But Some Solace From Internals - Fri, November 22, 3:00 PM

S&P Services PMI 57.0 vs 55.2 f'cast, 55.0 prev The word "internals" in economic data refers to additional components of any given report that add context and nuance beyond t...

Thu, November 21, 9:52 PM

Another Flat Day, This Time With Data - Thu, November 21, 9:52 PM

MBS Recap Another Flat Day, This Time With Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:51 PM...

Thu, November 21, 5:13 PM

Bonds Giving Up Early Gains, But Not Due to Data - Thu, November 21, 5:13 PM

It's been a bit of a chaotic morning so far, but in a narrow enough range to make it relatively boring in the bigger picture. Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory and managed ...

Thu, November 21, 4:11 PM

MBS at Lows - Thu, November 21, 4:11 PM

MBS are still technically 1 tick (.03) higher on the day but have fallen to their weakest levels over the past hour. Lenders who priced near the AM highs are seeing 5 ticks (.16) of weaknes...

Thu, November 21, 1:34 PM

Jobless Claims Stay Low, But Continued Claims Help Offset - Thu, November 21, 1:34 PM

Jobless Claims 213k vs 220k f'cast, 219k prev Continued Claims 1908k vs 1870k f'cast, 1872k prev Philly Fed Index -5.5 vs 8.0 f'cast 10.3 prev Bonds w...

Wed, November 20, 3:34 PM

Geopolitical Headlines Behind Small But Noticeable Reactions - Wed, November 20, 3:34 PM

There has been plenty of news over the past 48 hours regarding the U.S. greenlighting Ukraine to use long range missiles to attack Russia. Yesterday's examples resulted in relatively modest...

Tue, November 19, 9:59 PM

Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains - Tue, November 19, 9:59 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4...

Tue, November 19, 8:41 PM

Weakest Levels Of The Day - Tue, November 19, 8:41 PM

Bonds aren't doing anything very interesting at the moment, or today in general, but AM gains have gradually eroded to the point of MBS being near unchanged levels. 5.5 coupons are still up...

Tue, November 19, 3:31 PM

Threat of Global Nuclear War Barely Worth a Bond Rally - Tue, November 19, 3:31 PM

Tuesday brings a classic example of a seemingly significant geopolitical headline resulting in a completely underwhelming bond market reaction. When it comes to such matters, we m...

Mon, November 18, 9:33 PM

Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend - Mon, November 18, 9:33 PM

MBS Recap Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Mon, November 18, 4:10 PM

It's The Economy - Mon, November 18, 4:10 PM

While financial news outlets continue focusing on politics and Trump's cabinet picks, the bond market is expressing anxiety about the risk that economic data continues coming in hotter than ...

Fri, November 15, 8:41 PM

Uneventful Conclusion to Another Volatile Week - Fri, November 15, 8:41 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Conclusion to Another Volatile Week MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Fri, November 15, 8:40 PM

Heads-Up: MBS Off Afternoon Highs - Fri, November 15, 8:40 PM

This alert is only relevant for lenders who repriced for the better in response to the mid-day rally and more specifically, to those who repriced for the better after 1:40pm ET. Those lende...

Fri, November 15, 2:28 PM