If it weren't for the surge of volume in Treasuries lining up perfectly with economic report release times, one might wonder if traders even care that much about economic data right now. Th...
Granted, this morning's highs were only seen for a few brief moments. They also didn't coincide with any rate sheet print times. Nonetheless, current prices are now exactly a quarter ...
MBS prices lost ground fairly quickly after the 3pm CME close and 5.5 coupons are now down a quarter point on the day and just over 3/8ths from the AM highs. Negative reprices remain possib...
It's been an interesting morning for the bond market so far. ADP employment came in much stronger than expected. 15 minutes later, Q3 GDP was slightly weaker (2.8 vs 3.0) but with hig...
It's easy to lose sight of the current sell-off in this morning's shuffle. There's been a lot of back and forth. Unfortunately, the highs of the day coincide with lender rate sheet pr...
GDP Q3
2.8 vs 3.0 f'cast, 3.0 prev
Core Q3 PCE price index
2.2 vs 2.1 f'cast, 2.8 prev
All things considered, bonds are holding up fairly well. The 2.2 vs 2.1...
ADP Employment
233k vs 115k f'cast, 143k prev
The prevailing sentiment heading into this week's payroll counts (ADP and NFP) was that the hurricane would make for artificially lo...
7yr Treasury Auction
4.215 vs 4.235 f'cast
bid to cover 2.74x vs 2.54x avg
primer on auction jargon
Bonds were near their weakest levels of the day with 10yr yields pushi...
As we've noted on many occasions in the past few years, JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) used to be a non-event in terms of economic data moving markets. That changed in a...
MBS have lost more than an eighth of a point since the last alert. They're now down a quarter point on the day and almost 3/8ths from the AM highs. This makes negative reprices increas...
Bonds pushed into modestly positive territory to start the day, but have been giving up gains in the 10am hour. 5.5 UMBS are only down 2 ticks (.06) on the day, but that's 5 ticks (.16) bel...
After 2 frustrating weeks spent moving toward higher yields without any major justification from the economic data, things are about to change. From here on out, the move toward higher yiel...
MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 10 ticks (.31) from AM highs. Lenders who have not yet repriced for the worse are increasingly likely to be considering it.
10yr yields are ...
Still no drama, just slow losses throughout the day. MBS are now down 3 ticks (0.09) in total and a quarter point from AM highs. Most lenders could justify a negative reprice if you h...
Nothing dramatic is happening by any means, but MBS have trickled down to new lows for the day. 5.5 coupons are still up 1 tick (.03) but down 5 ticks (.16) from the highs. Lenders wh...
Granted, we were by no means looking for big things from this morning's Durable Goods data, but somehow it still managed to underwhelm. That's not saying much for Durable Goods considering ...
After being up just over a quarter point at times, MBS are now up only 2 ticks (.06). That shift played out after 2pm today with bonds currently at their lowest prices since this morning.
...
Thursday morning brought the week's only arguably important economic data in the form of Jobless Claims and S&P's PMIs. Both have a decent track record of inspiring small but noticeable...
Jobless Claims
227k vs 242k f'cast, 242k prev
Continued Claims
1897k vs 1880k f'cast, 1869k prev
Bonds were moderately stronger overnight but are dialing back the g...
This is more of a heads-up than a true "alert." The morning's initial alert covered a sell-off that resulted in prices being even lower than they are right now. The only reason for a ...
For those of you who already feel like you fully understand the message in Tuesday's recap, the next few days and weeks might get a little repetitive, but the gravity of the message bears repeati...
Bonds began the day in weaker territory and have been losing ground gradually since the open. MBS are now down almost a quarter point on the day with almost an eighth of a point of losses i...
Bonds are still unchanged to slightly stronger on the day, but prices have been leaking to the lowest levels. MBS are down 5 ticks (.16) from the AM highs. Because those highs occurre...
Monday was frustrating for the bond market. It was a medium large sell-off that would have made more sense as a flat, forgettable Monday. The only thing remotely resembling a consensus on t...
First off, there's no great explanation for the extent to which bonds are losing ground this morning. These days happen occasionally. Sometimes an elusive market mover becomes clearer...
MBS are now down 3/8ths in 5.5 coupons and more than half a point in 5.0 coupons. 10yr yields are up 9bps to new highs of 4.168.
There are no overt market movers in play this morning, wh...
MBS just lost another 2 ticks (.06) on top of an already weak start, bringing the total loss to more than a quarter point on the day for 5.5 coupons and 3/8ths of a point for 5.0 coupons.
...
While the recent trend has been unpleasant for the bond market, at least it's logical. Apart from some uncertainty related to the election and forthcoming Fed meeting, data drives all (to b...
It's been a slow burn for bonds after this morning's stronger econ data, so this is more of a periodic update on the proliferation of damage than an "alert" in response to some new development.&n...
Ever since last Thursday's econ data failed to cause a stir in financial markets, we knew we'd be waiting until today for big, data-driven volatility potential. Volatility goes both ways de...
Philly Fed
10.3 vs 3.0 f'cast
Retail Sales
0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast
Jobless Claims
241k vs 260k f'cast
Bonds were already modestly weaker in the overnight se...
The market was hungry for data before the jobs report week and has been even hungrier since then. Unfortunately, there haven't been many compelling reports and, more importantly, no results...
Bonds moved into stronger territory over the 3 day weekend in a move largely attributed to de-escalation in the Middle East and the sharp drop in oil prices that followed. Oil and bonds are far f...
This is more of a heads up for those of you floating with lenders who'd previously repriced for the better when MBS hit highs earlier this afternoon. Those lenders are now seeing an eighth ...
