There has been plenty of news over the past 48 hours regarding the U.S. greenlighting Ukraine to use long range missiles to attack Russia. Yesterday's examples resulted in relatively modest...
Bonds aren't doing anything very interesting at the moment, or today in general, but AM gains have gradually eroded to the point of MBS being near unchanged levels. 5.5 coupons are still up...
Tuesday brings a classic example of a seemingly significant geopolitical headline resulting in a completely underwhelming bond market reaction. When it comes to such matters, we m...
While financial news outlets continue focusing on politics and Trump's cabinet picks, the bond market is expressing anxiety about the risk that economic data continues coming in hotter than ...
This alert is only relevant for lenders who repriced for the better in response to the mid-day rally and more specifically, to those who repriced for the better after 1:40pm ET. Those lende...
All 3 of this morning's 8:30am economic reports were stronger than expected, and the 9:15am report was right in line with expectations. Of these, Retail Sales is the headliner, coming in at...
Retail Sales
0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast
last month revised to 0.8 from 0.4
NY Fed Manufacturing
31.2 vs -0.7 f'cast, -11.9 prev
Import Prices
0.3 vs -0.1 f'cast, -0.4 p...
MBS are now down an eighth on the day, back in line with AM lows and down at least a quarter point from most lenders' rate sheet print times. Negative reprices are increasingly possible.
...
This alert is only an "alert" for lenders who repriced near the highs of the day between 12:15 and 1pm ET. MBS are down 6 ticks since then (.19). As such, lenders who repriced for the...
The morning has been both straightforward and interesting. The straightforward part involved a moderate sell-off following stronger economic data. Jobless claims fell (both weekly ini...
Jobless Claims
217k vs 223k f'cast, 221k prev
Continued Claims
1.873k vs 1.888k f'cast, 1.892k prev
Core PPI M/M
0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev
Core PPI Y/Y...
Bonds continue selling off in a measured, linear fashion. 10yr yields are now up 3.2bps on the day at 4.456. MBS are up 3 ticks (.09), outperforming due to yield curve trading (i.e. s...
Bonds managed a moderate rally in response to this morning's inflation data. While it has since been mostly erased, it was as strong of a showing as we could have possibly hoped for at the ...
Once again, the 930am NYSE open is proving to be an obvious turning point for the bond market. In today's case, it transformed the rally into a sell-off, and has almost fully eroded the gai...
Bonds have been selling off in fits and starts after an initial recovery at the NYSE open. That lasted all of 30 minutes and the selling has been linear since then.
MBS are d...
In the run up to the election, we offered constant reminders that a 10bp move in Treasuries wasn't really a big deal, and that such volatility could be expected well into November. That's t...
MBS aren't much lower in price than they were at the time of the last alert, but a few additional lenders may be convinced to consider negative reprices this time around. 5.5 coupons are no...
MBS are still near unchanged levels on the day, but that's down more than an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Later-pricing lenders may have put out rate sheets near those highs. ...
"Buy the rumor, sell the news" is an age-old aphorism in financial markets for a reason. It accurately speaks to the real and repeatable phenomenon whereby traders trade all the information...
Bonds have bounced back to their strongest levels of the day shortly after the last alert. This began after he said they wouldn't rule out or in the previously anticipated pace of 2025 rate...
If there was a specific catalyst, it was Powell saying they've been watching the run up in rates and it's nowhere near where it was a year ago. This is true, but bonds don't love hearing it...
Fed says labor market conditions have generally eased as opposed to saying "job gains have slowed" previously
Fed drops the phrase about gaining greater confidence that inflation is moving tow...
What follows is a comparison between today's newly released Fed announcement and the previous announcement. Additions are blue/underlined. Subtractions are red/struck-through. Unchang...
This morning's only relevant economic data was weekly jobless claims. The headline was right in line with forecasts and the non-adjusted number keeps 2024 right in line with recent years......
Jobless Claims
221k vs 221k f'cast, 218k prev
Continued Claims
1892k vs 1880k f'cast, 1853k prev
Bonds were remarkably calm overnight, given the volatility that's ...
Heading into the election, we knew the bond market was losing ground in concert with improving odds of a Trump victory and red sweep. After being surprised in 2016, markets were determined ...
Last week could easily have left us with the impression that the bond market's love affair with economic data was put on hold until after the election. One could even claim that Friday's jo...
ISM Services
56.0 vs 53.8 f'cast, 54.9 prev
employment 54.0 vs 48.0
Prices 58.1 vs 58.0
There are no two ways about it: a 56.0 reading in ISM Services is a strong result.&n...
Bonds continue correcting after the big overnight rally. MBS were already just over an eighth of a point off the AM highs at the time of the last alert. They've since lost nearly anot...
After being up more than 3/8ths of a point on the day, MBS are now up only a quarter point and down 5 ticks (.16) from the AM highs. Because those highs occurred around the same time m...
Up until last Friday, 10yr Treasury yields had consistently closed at 4.27-4.28 last week. Now this morning, we're at 4.27-4.28 again. That's the shortest way to explain that we're no...
MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and an entire half point from the AM highs. Many lenders are seeing at least a quarter point of weakness from morning rate sheet print times. ...
After this morning's initial rally, bonds have been losing ground steadily. They're now at the weakest levels of the day with MBS roughly unchanged and down more than a quarter point from t...
When the median forecast for today's jobs report began circulating, many a market watcher felt that the 113k forecast was too low compared to the 254k previous reading, even after considering the...
Nonfarm Payrolls
12k vs 113k f'cast, 223k prev
Unemployment Rate
4.1 vs 4.1 f'cast, 4.1 prev
Clearly, the forecast consensus--which seemed way too low to everyone, ...
If it weren't for the surge of volume in Treasuries lining up perfectly with economic report release times, one might wonder if traders even care that much about economic data right now. Th...
Granted, this morning's highs were only seen for a few brief moments. They also didn't coincide with any rate sheet print times. Nonetheless, current prices are now exactly a quarter ...
