Last week's newsletter warned that it was time to start thinking about incredibly high volatility potential due to events in the first few days of November. But as far as interest rates are conce...
This newsletter series spent 3 straight weeks trying to remind readers that mortgage rates could go higher after the Fed rate cut, and then several more weeks warning about the high stakes j...
It's been frustrating and potentially confusing to see mortgage rates move consistently higher after the Fed's September 18th rate cut, but the Fed has nothing to do with the big rate spike of th...
There was a lot riding on Friday's big jobs report with a weak result likely to reinvigorate a move to long-term lows and a strong result likely to push rates higher. It ended up being VERY stron...
'Tis the season for things to be something other than what they appear to be, apparently. Lenders are talking about new loan limits, but they haven't officially changed. News stories are saying r...
This week's newsletter will be intentionally short in hopes of it being easier to share, read, and digest. It will offer several strategies for understanding the paradoxical disconnect between th...
It's a foregone conclusion that the Fed will be cutting rates on Wednesday, September 18th. As exciting as they might sound, mortgage rates have already reaped the rewards.
If...
This week's labor market data and Fed speeches solidified the case for the Fed to cut rates by at least 0.25% when it meets in 2 weeks. With more and more buzz surrounding that rate cut, it...
It's still just over 3 weeks away, but questions are already ramping up regarding the impact of the Fed's rate cut on mortgage rates. Here is exactly what the rate cut itself will do: NOTHI...
Every year, the Federal Reserve (aka "the Fed") gathers in Jackson Hole, WY with a bevy of other central bankers and academics to discuss and comment on monetary policy in a setting that's slight...
There's been widespread speculation as to the effect that falling rates will have on refinance demand in a world where 2/3rds of mortgages have rates under 4%. This week's data suggests it's wort...
This week alone, mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in well over a year and moved higher at their 3rd fastest pace in nearly 2 years.
Monday morning began with global financial marke...
The events of this past week serve as an exclamation point in one of the many sentences that tells the story of the big shift away from the generationally high rates seen at the end of 2023. ...
This week's most important economic data was the PCE price index which is the gold standard of big picture inflation measurement. For those hoping to see rates drop, it was important for PCE to c...
While much of this week's news cycle was focused on politics, it was business as usual for the bond market and interest rates. At this time of year, that business often involves a lack of major m...
There was a lot riding on this week's economic data and it delivered in a big way. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has had the biggest influence on interest rates of any of the scheduled mon...
It may have been a shorter week than normal due to the holiday, but it was no less important with several economic reports adding to the case for rate cuts.
The first week of any given month t...
The week began with a distinct absence of interest rate volatility, but things changed in a big way by Friday--at least compared to the previous week which was exceptionally quiet.
...
After a rocky start to the year, things began to improve for rates and the inflation outlook in May. June took the improvement to the next level, but this week didn't affect the bigger picture.
...
This week was hotly anticipated by investors due to the confluence of economic data and events. Depending on the outcome, interest rates stood to gain or lose quite a bit of ground. Thankfu...
The bond market (and therefore interest rates) came into the current week with a bit of a bias. Even after accounting for other variables, there was a predisposition to focus on d...
This week got off to a late start as markets were closed on Monday for Memorial Day. Upon returning to the office, traders began pushing rates higher almost immediately.
It's often said that t...
It was largely a dull week for financial markets in terms of scheduled data and volatility, but numerous Fed speeches helped reiterate what the market thought it already knew. Specifically,...
As long as inflation is the top concern for financial markets, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most important economic report on any given month and it came out this week. Stocks and b...
In general, you should be skeptical any time someone says a future week will be more volatile. There's really no way to know such things in advance, but this time is an exception.
While we can...
It was an action-packed week for the housing and mortgage market. Wednesday's Fed announcement was the highlight, but we also got several economic reports that caused rate volatility. Thankfully,...
As 2024 has progressed, economic data--especially inflation data--have made it increasingly clear that rates will not be coming down nearly as soon as the Fed (and the market) expected.
Rates&...
The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that's come out since then has everyone singing a different tune. This ...
If there was only one thing to know about the mortgage market this week, it would be that Wednesday's inflation data prompted one of biggest single day increases in mortgage rates in decades. If ...
Data dependent... That's a phrase that is all too prevalent in financial markets and among members of the Federal Reserve. It refers to the fact that economic data will guide the future pat...
With markets only open 3.5 days and without any top tier economic reports to influence rates, this week could have arguably been viewed as a 9 day weekend for traders. In fact, despite some...
This week's main event was Wednesday's Fed announcement, or more specifically, the dot plot.
What's a dot plot?
4 times a year, the Fed releases its best guess of where the Fed Funds Rate w...
Back in late 2023, we got in the car with the Federal Reserve with the promise of a trip to our favorite place: the land of lower interest rates. In 2024, we keep asking "are we there yet?" The m...
It was a hotly anticipated week for interest rates due to the arrival of the first batch of big ticket economic data since the Inflation report that came out on February 13th. This week's data wa...
This week was more active and interesting than the previous example with a few important economic reports helping rates avoid breaking their recent ceiling.
Using 10yr Treasury yields as a ben...
Between Monday's holiday market closure and the general absence of highly relevant economic reports, it was a fairly quiet week for interest rates and the housing market, but not without some pot...
Inflation is the biggest problem for interest rates these days and this week brought two reports that pushed rates higher. Both are released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and both pointed tow...
Last Thursday, Mortgage News Daily (MND) published an article titled: "Rates Right in Line With Long-Term Lows, But That Could Change on Friday." Indeed, rates ended up jumping in a big way--the ...
Interest rates have a long and reliable history of reacting to the jobs report more than any other monthly economic data and the most recent example sent mortgage rates screaming higher at the fa...
Over the past 2 months, speculation ramped up quickly regarding the pace and magnitude of Fed rate cuts in 2024. Next week brings the first Fed meeting that's in the realm of that speculation.
...
So far, 2024 has been distinctly different from the end of 2023. November and December saw rates move lower at one of the fastest paces in decades. In contrast, January has delivered a fairly con...
The much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released this week. For those seeking evidence that inflation will soon be back at the Fed's target level, it wasn't the triumph it might have ...
Seemingly overnight, there is widespread media attention on the spread between mortgage rates and the 10yr Treasury yield. There shouldn't be.
Why are we talking about the 10yr Treasury yield...
While this week was uneventful and while 2022 was more volatile in terms of movement in the housing/mortgage market, we can still reflect on 2023 as a year of extremes.
Incidentally, that thes...
The astonishing pace of the recent drop in interest rates has raised some questions regarding sustainability and justification, but we can clear them up with a single chart.
The Federal Reserv...
We came into this week expecting the Fed's Dot Plot to set the tone, or at least to create a good amount of movement in rates, and that's exactly what happened.
The dot plot refers to a chart ...
It was mostly a great week for mortgage rates with the average lender near the best levels in months through Thursday. Friday's jobs report pushed rates back up a bit, but not excessively. Next w...
It's been a good week for extremes in the housing market with rates at 3 month lows, pending home sales at "record" lows, and conforming loan limits up to record highs. Here's why at least two of...
NOTE: this is an early version of the weekly newsletter that normally comes out on Friday. There will be no newsletter on Friday due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Mortgage rates have fal...
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of two big, monthly economic reports that have the strongest track records of causing volatility for rates. This makes sense considering inflation is t...