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Two Kinds of Flat
Two Kinds of Flat
Retail Sales was/is the biggest data point of the week and it came out perfectly unchanged. This was as-expected according to some data aggregators and stronger than expected according to others. Perhaps more importantly, some of the closely watched internals were much stronger. For example, excluding autos and gas, retail sales rose 0.8% versus 0.3% last month and forecasts of 0.1%. This helps the flat headline look stronger than expected. It is also resulting in a flat morning for MBS, which marks a loss of roughly 6 ticks (.19) in MBS versus opening levels. Technically, bonds are still in modestly stronger territory due to solid overnight gains. The rest of the day will be spent fighting to hold just inside positive territory and that would be a good victory in the bigger picture considering rates are at 5 months lows.
MBS are back to unchanged levels. 10yr yields are down 3.2 bps at 4.20%.
Doing a decent job holding in positive territory now. MBS up 3 ticks (.09). 10yr down 3.7bps at 4.196.
Treasuries back at best levels, down 6bps at 4.173. MBS up an eighth.
The Sun Also Sets on Bond Rallies
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Jul 16 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jun Export prices mm (%) | Jun | -0.5% | -0.1% | -0.6% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Export Prices YoY | Jun | 0.7% | 1% | 0.6% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | Jun | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Sales YoY | Jun | 2.3% | 2.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Sales (%) | Jun | 0% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Jun | 0.4% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Import Prices YoY | Jun | 1.6% | 1% | 1.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Import prices mm (%) | Jun | 0% | 0.2% | -0.4% |
| 8:55AM | Jul/13 Redbook yy (%) | Jul/13 | 4.8% | 6.3% | |
| 10:00AM | May Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | May | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 10:00AM | May Business Inventories (% ) | May | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 10:00AM | Jul NAHB housing market indx | Jul | 42 | 44 | 43 |
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 11:30AM | 42-Day Bill Auction (%) | 5.265% | 5.270% | ||
| 2:45PM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
| 4:30PM | Jul/12 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Jul/12 | -4.440M | -1.9M | |
| Wednesday, Jul 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jul/12 | 7% | ||
| 7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jul/12 | -0.2% | ||
| 7:00AM | Jul/12 Mortgage Market Index | Jul/12 | 206.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/12 | 144.3 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jul/12 MBA Refi Index | Jul/12 | 532.3 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jun Housing starts number mm (ml) | Jun | 1.31M | 1.277M | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Building permits: number (ml) | Jun | 1.39M | 1.399M | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Build permits: change mm (%) | Jun | -2.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Jun House starts mm: change (%) | Jun | -5.5% | ||
| 9:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 9:15AM | Jun Capacity Utilization (%) | Jun | 78.6% | 78.2% | |
| 9:15AM | Jun Industrial Production (%) | Jun | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 9:15AM | Jun Manufacturing Production YoY | Jun | -0.3% | ||
| 9:15AM | Jun Industrial Production YoY | Jun | 0.1% | ||
| 9:15AM | Jun Manufacturing Production MoM | Jun | 0.6% | ||
| 9:35AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jul/12 | 0.356M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jul/12 | -2.006M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jul/12 | 0.239M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jul/12 | 4.884M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/12 | -3.444M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jul/12 | -0.702M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jul/12 | 0.022M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jul/12 | 0.615M | ||
| 10:30AM | Jul/12 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jul/12 | 0.317M | ||
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 5.195% | |||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
| 1:00PM | 20-Year Bond Auction | 4.452% | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
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