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Straightforward Gains After Important Inflation Data
Straightforward Gains After Important Inflation Data
While today's monthly core PCE headline may have technically been higher than the median forecast, a vast majority of forecasters abstained from submitting updated guesses to data aggregators after yesterday's quarterly PCE data. Had they been compelled to do so, the forecast would almost certainly have risen to 0.2 from 0.1 and today's unrounded number of 0.182 would be the logical beat that the market traded... logically. In fact, one might call the 2 day action "boring" considering this morning's quick PCE-driven rally almost perfectly offset yesterday's PCE-driven sell-off and neither was very big in the bigger picture.
Straightforward Gains After Important Inflation Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Jul 26 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jun Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Jun | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jun PCE (y/y) (%) | Jun | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Jun | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Personal Income (%) | Jun | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 8:30AM | Jun PCE price index mm (%) | Jun | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Jun | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Jul Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Jul | 3% | 2.9% | 3% |
| 10:00AM | Jul Michigan Consumer Expectations Final | Jul | 68.8 | 67.2 | 69.6 |
| 10:00AM | Jul Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Jul | 66.4 | 66 | 68.2 |
| 10:00AM | Jul U Mich conditions | Jul | 62.7 | 64.1 | 65.9 |
| 10:00AM | Jul Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Jul | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3% |
| 1:00PM | Jul/26 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Jul/26 | 482 | 477 | |
| 1:00PM | Jul/26 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Jul/26 | 589 | 586 | |
| Monday, Jul 29 | |||||
| 10:30AM | Jul Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | Jul | -15.1 | ||
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 76 | |||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.990% | |||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 5.190% | |||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 3:00PM | Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates (%) | ||||
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