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Modestly Weaker But Ultimately Uneventful
Modestly Weaker But Ultimately Uneventful
In terms of the realized volatility relative to potential volatility, this week turned out to be about as calm as we could have possibly imagined. It is truly stunning that we will not be able to look back on daily bond market charts and pick out the most interesting Fed meeting in years. As for Friday, it was void of data and serendipitously weaker for bonds. One could argue that it's a simple continuation of "selling the news" after "buying the rumor," but we'd argue motivations don't matter when we're only counting a few bps of weakness in 10yr yields that leave us at levels that are still lower than all but a a week and a half of the past year and a half.
Modestly Weaker, But Ultimately Uneventful Friday
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Sep 20 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 1:00PM | Sep/20 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Sep/20 | 488 | 485 | |
| 1:00PM | Sep/20 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Sep/20 | 588 | 590 | |
| 2:00PM | Fed Harker Speech | ||||
| Monday, Sep 23 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Aug National Activity Index | Aug | 0.12 | -0.20 | -0.34 |
| 9:45AM | Sep S&P Global Composite PMI | Sep | 54.4 | 54.3 | 54.6 |
| 9:45AM | Sep S&P Global Services PMI | Sep | 55.4 | 55.3 | 55.7 |
| 9:45AM | Sep S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Sep | 47.0 | 48.5 | 47.9 |
| 10:15AM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 76 | |||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.540% | 4.750% | ||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.270% | 4.410% | ||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 1:00PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
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