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Uneventful Day, But That's a Victory These Days
Uneventful Day, But That's a Victory These Days
Last week's bond market action offered some glimmers of hope that the most recent jobs report wouldn't cause ongoing momentum toward higher rates, but yields nonetheless hit their highest levels on Thu/Fri. Today is a victory in that context as bonds moved back into the lower half of last week's trading range and all without any major market movers in play. To be fair to the NY Fed Manufacturing index, it was a market mover and it did help set a rate-friendly tone out of the gate. That said, the move looked more like a yield curve adjustment as opposed to a widespread bond rally (i.e. 30yr yields dropped 9bps while 2yr yields were basically unchanged). Thursday AM's data is higher consequence.
Uneventful Day, But That's a Victory These Days
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Oct 16 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/11 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Oct/11 | 6.52% | 6.36% | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/11 MBA Mortgage Applications | Oct/11 | -17% | -5.1% | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/11 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/11 | 138.4 | 149.2 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/11 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/11 | 230.2 | 277.5 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/11 MBA Refi Index | Oct/11 | 734.6 | 997.3 | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Export Prices YoY | Sep | -2.1 | -0.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Import prices mm (%) | Sep | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Sep Export prices mm (%) | Sep | -0.7% | -0.4% | -0.7% |
| 8:30AM | Sep Import Prices YoY | Sep | -0.1 | 0.8% | |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.430% | |||
| 2:00PM | Sep Federal budget, $ (bl) | Sep | $61B | $-380B | |
| 4:30PM | Oct/11 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Oct/11 | 2.3M | 10.9M | |
| Thursday, Oct 17 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Oct/05 Continued Claims (ml) | Oct/05 | 1870K | 1861K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/12 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/12 | 258K | 258K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/12 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Oct/12 | 231K | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Philly Fed Business Index | Oct | 3 | 1.7 | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Philly Fed Business Conditions | Oct | 15.8 | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Philly Fed New Orders | Oct | -1.5 | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Philly Fed Prices Paid | Oct | 34.00 | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Philly Fed CAPEX Index | Oct | 25.00 | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Philly Fed Employment | Oct | 10.7 | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Retail Sales (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | Sep | 0.2% | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Retail Sales YoY | Sep | 2.1% | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Sep | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9:15AM | Sep Manufacturing Production YoY | Sep | 0.2% | ||
| 9:15AM | Sep Manufacturing Production MoM | Sep | -0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 9:15AM | Sep Industrial Production YoY | Sep | 0% | ||
| 9:15AM | Sep Industrial Production (%) | Sep | -0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 9:15AM | Sep Capacity Utilization (%) | Sep | 77.8% | 78% | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Business Inventories (% ) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct NAHB housing market indx | Oct | 43 | 41 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | Aug | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 10:30AM | Oct/11 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Oct/11 | 80Bcf | 82Bcf | |
| 11:00AM | Oct/11 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Oct/11 | 0.497M | ||
| 11:00AM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 11:00AM | Oct/11 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/11 | 2.3M | 5.810M | |
| 11:00AM | Oct/11 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Oct/11 | -0.305M | ||
| 11:00AM | Oct/11 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Oct/11 | -1.4M | -6.304M | |
| 11:00AM | Oct/11 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Oct/11 | 0.627M | ||
| 11:00AM | Oct/11 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Oct/11 | 1.247M | ||
| 11:00AM | Oct/11 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Oct/11 | 0.194M | ||
| 11:00AM | Oct/11 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Oct/11 | -2.5M | -3.124M | |
| 11:00AM | Oct/11 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Oct/11 | -0.101M | ||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.750% | |||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.640% | |||
| 12:00PM | Oct/16 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Oct/16 | 5.41% | ||
| 12:00PM | Oct/16 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Oct/16 | 6.32% | ||
| 4:00PM | Aug Overall net capital flows (TIC Data) (bl) | Aug | $156.5B | ||
| 4:00PM | Aug Foreign Buying, Bonds (TIC Data) (bl) | Aug | $55.9B | ||
| 4:00PM | Aug Net Long-Term Flows, excluding swaps (TIC data) (bl) | Aug | $135.4B | ||
| 4:30PM | Oct/16 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Oct/16 | $7.05T | ||
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