Why Bonds Sold Off After a Decent AM Rally
Why Bonds Sold Off After a Decent AM Rally
It was a day for "explanations" in the bond market with the morning rally needing to be explained in the context of CPI data that came in right on the screws and a subsequent sell-off that also seemed to happen for no apparent reason. In fact, selling continued even after the well-received 10yr Treasury auction. To some extent, the AM selling can be tied to the Bank of Canada announcement, which was universally panned as ultra-hawkish (despite a 0.50% rate cut). The continued selling is more mysterious and can only really be explained with curve trading and repositioning following the AM CPI data. The big clue: Fed Funds Futures for next week rallied and never sold off. But the farther one moves into the future, the bigger the reversal became. Bottom line, traders sold long term bonds to buy the shortest term debt and the buying hasn't even necessarily taken place yet.
Why Bonds Sold Off After a Decent AM Rally
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Dec 12 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov Producer Prices (%) | Nov | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Nov PPI | Nov | 145.615 | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Nov | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Nov | 3.2% | 3.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec/07 Jobless Claims (k) | Dec/07 | 220K | 224K | |
| 8:30AM | Dec/07 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Dec/07 | 218.25K | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov PPI YoY | Nov | 2.6% | 2.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Nov PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | Nov | 0.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | Nov | 3.5% | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov/30 Continued Claims (ml) | Nov/30 | 1880K | 1871K | |
| 10:30AM | Dec/06 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Dec/06 | -175Bcf | -30Bcf | |
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.400% | |||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.350% | |||
| 12:00PM | Dec/11 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Dec/11 | 6.69% | ||
| 12:00PM | Dec/11 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Dec/11 | 5.96% | ||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.608% | |||
| 4:30PM | Dez/11 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Dez/11 | $6.9T | ||
| Friday, Dec 13 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov Export prices mm (%) | Nov | -0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Import prices mm (%) | Nov | -0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Export Prices YoY | Nov | -0.1% | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov Import Prices YoY | Nov | 0.8% | ||
| 1:00PM | Dec/13 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Dec/13 | 482 | ||
| 1:00PM | Dec/13 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Dec/13 | 589 | ||
