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Broad, Negative Momentum is Masking Normal Market Movers
Broad, Negative Momentum is Masking Normal Market Movers
Tuesday featured a much weaker PPI report that failed to inspire any lasting rally in the bond market. While there were a few ways to reconcile that specific turn of events by examining the internal components of the data, it's also true that bond market momentum has been broadly negative recently. At times like this, data has to work harder if it wants to push rates lower. It can even seem like rates move higher whether the data is good or bad. Today's recap video includes an in-depth assessment of this phenomenon. Long story short, things are still mostly logical, as long as we're considering all the pieces on the board.
Why Does it Feel Like Bonds Can't Win?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jan 15 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Jan/10 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/10 | 162 | 127.7000 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/10 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jan/10 | 33.3% | -3.7% | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/10 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/10 | 224.4 | 168.4 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/10 MBA Refi Index | Jan/10 | 575.6 | 401.1000 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/10 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jan/10 | 7.09% | 6.99% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec CPI index, nsa | Dec | 315.61 | 315.61 | 315.49 |
| 8:30AM | Dec m/m Headline CPI (%) | Dec | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Dec m/m CORE CPI (%) | Dec | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Dec y/y Headline CPI (%) | Dec | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% |
| 8:30AM | Dec y/y CORE CPI (%) | Dec | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 8:30AM | Jan NY Fed Manufacturing | Jan | -12.60 | 3 | 0.20 |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core CPI index, sa | Dec | 317.685 | 316.441 | |
| 9:20AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jan/10 | 5.852M | 2.60M | 6.33M |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jan/10 | -0.021M | -0.167M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jan/10 | -0.255M | 0.045M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jan/10 | 0.765M | -2.502M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/10 | -1.961M | -1.6M | -0.959M |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jan/10 | 3.077M | 1.1M | 6.071M |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jan/10 | 0.646M | -0.632M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jan/10 | 0.397M | -0.081M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jan/10 | -1.304M | 0.278M | |
| 11:00AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.190% | |||
| 12:00PM | Fed Golsbee Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| Thursday, Jan 16 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Export prices mm (%) | Dec | 0.2% | 0% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Export Prices YoY | Dec | 0.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan/04 Continued Claims (ml) | Jan/04 | 1870K | 1867K | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Import prices mm (%) | Dec | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Import Prices YoY | Dec | 1.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan/11 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/11 | 210K | 201K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed Business Conditions | Jan | 30.7 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan/11 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Jan/11 | 213K | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed Prices Paid | Jan | 31.2 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed New Orders | Jan | -4.3 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed CAPEX Index | Jan | 18.8 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed Business Index | Jan | -5 | -16.4 | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Dec | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | Dec | 0.2% | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec Retail Sales YoY | Dec | 3.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed Employment | Jan | 6.6 | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec Retail Sales (%) | Dec | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | Nov | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Business Inventories (% ) | Nov | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan NAHB housing market indx | Jan | 45 | 46 | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/10 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jan/10 | -260Bcf | -40Bcf | |
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.245% | |||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.240% | |||
| 12:00PM | Jan/16 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Jan/16 | 6.14% | ||
| 12:00PM | Jan/16 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Jan/16 | 9.93% | ||
| 4:30PM | Jan/15 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Jan/15 | $6.85T | ||
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