Uneventful Fed Day, Bonds Eventually Agree
Uneventful Fed Day, Bonds Eventually Agree
There's never a way to know with certainty that a Fed announcement will be uneventful, but if we had to assign relative probabilities, today's looked much more likely than normal to pass without a trace. In the immediate wake of the announcement, that didn't look like it was going to happen. Bonds sold quickly due to what seemed to be a notable verbiage change. Then in the press conference, Powell clarified the verbiage change and bonds unwound their initial reaction. MBS and Treasuries thus ended the day perfectly in line with pre-Fed levels, like it never even happened.
Uneventful Fed Day, Bonds Eventually Agree
Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wednesday, Jan 29 | |||||
7:00AM | Jan/24 MBA Mortgage Applications | Jan/24 | -2% | 0.1% | |
7:00AM | Jan/24 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Jan/24 | 7.02% | 7.02% | |
7:00AM | Jan/24 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/24 | 162.4 | 163 | |
7:00AM | Jan/24 MBA Refi Index | Jan/24 | 520.9 | 558.8 | |
7:00AM | Jan/24 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/24 | 220.0 | 224.6 | |
8:30AM | Dec Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | Dec | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
8:30AM | Dec Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Dec | -0.5% | 0.2% | -0.2% |
8:30AM | Dec Goods Trade Balance Adv | Dec | $-122.11B | $-105.4B | $-102.86B |
10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Jan/24 | 2.957M | 1.5M | 2.332M |
10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Jan/24 | -0.044M | -0.043M | |
10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Jan/24 | 0.028M | -0.473M | |
10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Jan/24 | -4.994M | -2.1M | -3.07M |
10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Jan/24 | 0.326M | -0.148M | |
10:30AM | Jan/24 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/24 | 3.463M | 3.2M | -1.017M |
10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Jan/24 | 0.532M | 0.184M | |
10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Jan/24 | 0.128M | 0.068M | |
10:30AM | Jan/24 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Jan/24 | -0.333M | -1.125M | |
11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.190% | 4.205% | ||
2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | |
2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
2:30PM | Powell Press Conference | ||||
Thursday, Jan 30 | |||||
8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q4 | 3.2% | 3.3% | |
8:30AM | Q4 GDP deflator (%) | Q4 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
8:30AM | Q4 GDP (%) | Q4 | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% |
8:30AM | Jan/25 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Jan/25 | 212.5K | 213.5K | |
8:30AM | Q4 Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final | Q4 | 4.2% | 3.7% | |
8:30AM | Q4 PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q4 | 2.3% | 1.5% | |
8:30AM | Jan/25 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/25 | 207K | 220K | 223K |
8:30AM | Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q4 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% |
8:30AM | Jan/18 Continued Claims (ml) | Jan/18 | 1858K | 1890K | 1899K |
10:00AM | Dec Pending Home Sales YoY | Dec | -5.0% | 6.9% | |
10:00AM | Dec Pending Home Sales (%) | Dec | -5.5% | 0% | 2.2% |
10:30AM | Jan/24 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jan/24 | -321B | -313Bcf | -233Bcf |
11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.250% | 4.265% | ||
11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.240% | 4.250% | ||
12:00PM | Jan/30 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Jan/30 | 6.12% | 6.16% | |
12:00PM | Jan/30 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Jan/30 | 6.95% | 6.96% | |
4:30PM | Jan/29 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Jan/29 | $6.83T |