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Uneventful Fed Day, Bonds Eventually Agree
Uneventful Fed Day, Bonds Eventually Agree
There's never a way to know with certainty that a Fed announcement will be uneventful, but if we had to assign relative probabilities, today's looked much more likely than normal to pass without a trace. In the immediate wake of the announcement, that didn't look like it was going to happen. Bonds sold quickly due to what seemed to be a notable verbiage change. Then in the press conference, Powell clarified the verbiage change and bonds unwound their initial reaction. MBS and Treasuries thus ended the day perfectly in line with pre-Fed levels, like it never even happened.
Slightly weaker after data but still in positive territory. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.7bps at 4.513
Uneventful Fed Day, Bonds Eventually Agree
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jan 30 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q4 | 3.2% | 3.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP deflator (%) | Q4 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP (%) | Q4 | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jan/25 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Jan/25 | 212.5K | 213.5K | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final | Q4 | 4.2% | 3.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q4 | 2.3% | 1.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/25 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/25 | 207K | 220K | 223K |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q4 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% |
| 8:30AM | Jan/18 Continued Claims (ml) | Jan/18 | 1858K | 1890K | 1899K |
| 10:00AM | Dec Pending Home Sales YoY | Dec | -5.0% | 6.9% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Pending Home Sales (%) | Dec | -5.5% | 0% | 2.2% |
| 10:30AM | Jan/24 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Jan/24 | -321Bcf | -313Bcf | -233Bcf |
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.250% | 4.265% | ||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.240% | 4.250% | ||
| 12:00PM | Jan/30 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Jan/30 | 6.12% | 6.16% | |
| 12:00PM | Jan/30 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Jan/30 | 6.95% | 6.96% | |
| 4:30PM | Jan/29 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Jan/29 | $6.82T | $6.83T | |
| Friday, Jan 31 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Dec | 2.8% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Dec | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Employment Benefits qq (%) | Q4 | 0.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q4 Employment costs (%) | Q4 | 0.9% | 0.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Personal Income (%) | Dec | 0.4% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Employment Wages qq (%) | Q4 | 0.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Dec | 0.5% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec PCE (y/y) (%) | Dec | 2.6% | 2.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec PCE price index mm (%) | Dec | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Jan Chicago PMI | Jan | 40 | 36.9 | |
| 1:00PM | Jan/31 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Jan/31 | 472 | ||
| 1:00PM | Jan/31 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Jan/31 | 576 | ||
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