Low Volatility Session Ahead of Fed Day
Low Volatility Session Ahead of Fed Day
4 out of the year's 8 Fed announcements include an updated dot plot (i.e. a chart of each Fed member's projection for the Fed Funds Rate at the end of the next few years). Dots have come to be viewed as one of the biggest potential flashpoints for rate volatility, but their actual track record is hit and miss. Over the past few years, they've done more to simply add context or push-back to the tone conveyed in the statement or press conference, but have stopped short of re-writing the momentum narrative. This week's example should fit right in. We know the Fed won't hike and we know the dots won't be making the sort of huge leaps seen on several recent occasions. As for today, it was pleasant, but boring, with a slightly weaker start giving way to mild rally into the close--just another day inside the multi-week consolidation.
Low Volatility Session Ahead of Fed Day
Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wednesday, Mar 19 | |||||
12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
7:00AM | Mar/14 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/14 | 252.5 | 269.3 | |
7:00AM | Mar/14 MBA Refi Index | Mar/14 | 794.4 | 911.3 | |
7:00AM | Mar/14 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Mar/14 | 6.72% | 6.67% | |
7:00AM | Mar/14 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/14 | 154.7 | 154.6 | |
7:00AM | Mar/14 MBA Mortgage Applications | Mar/14 | -6.2% | 11.2% | |
10:30AM | Mar/14 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Mar/14 | 0.008M | -0.183M | |
10:30AM | Mar/14 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Mar/14 | -0.527M | -2.0M | -5.737M |
10:30AM | Mar/14 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Mar/14 | 0.067M | -0.078M | |
10:30AM | Mar/14 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Mar/14 | -2.812M | -0.1M | -1.559M |
10:30AM | Mar/14 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Mar/14 | -1.009M | -1.228M | |
10:30AM | Mar/14 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Mar/14 | 0.151M | -0.113M | |
10:30AM | Mar/14 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Mar/14 | -1.439M | 0.503M | |
10:30AM | Mar/14 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/14 | 1.745M | 1.1M | 1.448M |
10:30AM | Mar/14 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Mar/14 | -0.045M | 0.321M | |
11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.195% | 4.180% | ||
2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | |
2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 2026 | 3.4% | 3.4% | ||
2:00PM | FOMC Economic Projections | ||||
2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 2027 | 3.1% | 3.1% | ||
2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Longer | 3% | 3% | ||
2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 2025 | 3.9% | 3.9% | ||
2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
2:30PM | Powell Press Conference | ||||
4:00PM | Jan Net Long-Term Flows, excluding swaps (TIC data) (bl) | Jan | $101.1M | $72B | |
4:00PM | Jan Overall net capital flows (TIC Data) (bl) | Jan | $87.1B | ||
4:00PM | Jan Foreign Buying, Bonds (TIC Data) (bl) | Jan | $-49.7B | ||
Thursday, Mar 20 | |||||
8:30AM | Mar/08 Continued Claims (ml) | Mar/08 | 1890K | 1870K | |
8:30AM | Q4 Current account (bl) | Q4 | $-325.5B | $-310.9B | |
8:30AM | Mar/15 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Mar/15 | 226K | ||
8:30AM | Mar Philly Fed Business Conditions | Mar | 27.8 | ||
8:30AM | Mar/15 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/15 | 224K | 220K | |
8:30AM | Mar Philly Fed Prices Paid | Mar | 40.50 | ||
8:30AM | Mar Philly Fed New Orders | Mar | 21.9 | ||
8:30AM | Mar Philly Fed CAPEX Index | Mar | 14.00 | ||
8:30AM | Mar Philly Fed Business Index | Mar | 8.5 | 18.1 | |
8:30AM | Mar Philly Fed Employment | Mar | 5.3 | ||
10:00AM | Feb CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Feb | -0.2% | -0.3% | |
10:00AM | Feb Existing home sales (ml) | Feb | 3.95M | 4.08M | |
10:00AM | Feb Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Feb | -4.9% | ||
10:30AM | Mar/14 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Mar/14 | 5Bcf | -62Bcf | |
11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.220% | |||
11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.225% | |||
12:00PM | Mar/20 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Mar/20 | 6.65% | ||
12:00PM | Mar/20 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Mar/20 | 5.8% | ||
1:00PM | 10-yr TIPS Auction (bl) | 18 | |||
1:00PM | 10-Year TIPS Auction | 2.243% | |||
4:30PM | Mar/19 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Mar/19 | $6.76T |