Gregory Richardson
EVP - Capital Markets
Primis Mortgage Company

Low Volatility Session Ahead of Fed Day

Low Volatility Session Ahead of Fed Day

4 out of the year's 8 Fed announcements include an updated dot plot (i.e. a chart of each Fed member's projection for the Fed Funds Rate at the end of the next few years). Dots have come to be viewed as one of the biggest potential flashpoints for rate volatility, but their actual track record is hit and miss.  Over the past few years, they've done more to simply add context or push-back to the tone conveyed in the statement or press conference, but have stopped short of re-writing the momentum narrative. This week's example should fit right in. We know the Fed won't hike and we know the dots won't be making the sort of huge leaps seen on several recent occasions. As for today, it was pleasant, but boring, with a slightly weaker start giving way to mild rally into the close--just another day inside the multi-week consolidation.  

Latest Video Analysis

Low Volatility Session Ahead of Fed Day

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.68 -0.04 10YR 4.290% +0.004% 3/19/2025 5:32AM EST
Recall 2 weeks ago that news of the incoming German Chancellor's ambitions to massively increase debt/spending led to the end of the bond rally in the US that took 10yr yields from 4.55 to 4.15%. The resulting bounce in US Treasuries was limited to roughly 15bps.  Meanwhile, Germany's equivalent 10yr yields spiked 3 times as much, with the March 5th being the worst day for German bonds since 1989 (fall of Berlin Wall). At the time, it wasn't a given that the debt ceiling...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.76% -0.02% 15YR Fixed 6.22% -0.02% 3/19/2025
As we often discuss, mortgage lenders prefer to set their rates once per day. They only make changes when the underlying bond market makes a big enough move. While it wasn't an extreme example, many lenders made such changes today as bonds improved steadily throughout the day.  Before the improvements, the average lender was offering slightly higher rates compared to yesterday. After the improvement, today's rates are a hair lower than yesterday's. In both cases, rates...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Mar 19
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
7:00AM Mar/14 Mortgage Market Index Mar/14 252.5 269.3
7:00AM Mar/14 MBA Refi Index Mar/14 794.4 911.3
7:00AM Mar/14 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) Mar/14 6.72% 6.67%
7:00AM Mar/14 MBA Purchase Index Mar/14 154.7 154.6
7:00AM Mar/14 MBA Mortgage Applications Mar/14 -6.2% 11.2%
10:30AM Mar/14 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change Mar/14 0.008M -0.183M
10:30AM Mar/14 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change Mar/14 -0.527M -2.0M -5.737M
10:30AM Mar/14 EIA Gasoline Production Change Mar/14 0.067M -0.078M
10:30AM Mar/14 EIA Distillate Stocks Change Mar/14 -2.812M -0.1M -1.559M
10:30AM Mar/14 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change Mar/14 -1.009M -1.228M
10:30AM Mar/14 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change Mar/14 0.151M -0.113M
10:30AM Mar/14 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change Mar/14 -1.439M 0.503M
10:30AM Mar/14 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Mar/14 1.745M 1.1M 1.448M
10:30AM Mar/14 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change Mar/14 -0.045M 0.321M
11:30AM 17-Week Bill Auction (%) 4.195% 4.180%
2:00PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
2:00PM Interest Rate Projection - 2026 3.4% 3.4%
2:00PM FOMC Economic Projections
2:00PM Interest Rate Projection - 2027 3.1% 3.1%
2:00PM Interest Rate Projection - Longer 3% 3%
2:00PM Interest Rate Projection - 2025 3.9% 3.9%
2:30PM Fed Press Conference
2:30PM Powell Press Conference
4:00PM Jan Net Long-Term Flows, excluding swaps (TIC data) (bl) Jan $101.1M $72B
4:00PM Jan Overall net capital flows (TIC Data) (bl) Jan $87.1B
4:00PM Jan Foreign Buying, Bonds (TIC Data) (bl) Jan $-49.7B
Thursday, Mar 20
8:30AM Mar/08 Continued Claims (ml) Mar/08 1890K 1870K
8:30AM Q4 Current account (bl) Q4 $-325.5B $-310.9B
8:30AM Mar/15 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) Mar/15 226K
8:30AM Mar Philly Fed Business Conditions Mar 27.8
8:30AM Mar/15 Jobless Claims (k) Mar/15 224K 220K
8:30AM Mar Philly Fed Prices Paid Mar 40.50
8:30AM Mar Philly Fed New Orders Mar 21.9
8:30AM Mar Philly Fed CAPEX Index Mar 14.00
8:30AM Mar Philly Fed Business Index Mar 8.5 18.1
8:30AM Mar Philly Fed Employment Mar 5.3
10:00AM Feb CB Leading Index MoM (%) Feb -0.2% -0.3%
10:00AM Feb Existing home sales (ml) Feb 3.95M 4.08M
10:00AM Feb Exist. home sales % chg (%) Feb -4.9%
10:30AM Mar/14 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf Mar/14 5Bcf -62Bcf
11:30AM 8-Week Bill Auction 4.220%
11:30AM 4-Week Bill Auction 4.225%
12:00PM Mar/20 30-Year Mortgage Rate Mar/20 6.65%
12:00PM Mar/20 15-Year Mortgage Rate Mar/20 5.8%
1:00PM 10-yr TIPS Auction (bl) 18
1:00PM 10-Year TIPS Auction 2.243%
4:30PM Mar/19 Central Bank Balance Sheet Mar/19 $6.76T
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Rates rocketed lower with stunning consistency starting in late February. They finally bounced last week, but rather than move back up to previous levels, they held in a relatively narrow, sideways range. That set the stage for a showdown this week. OK, a "showdown" may be a bit dramatic, but it's not an overstatement to say that rates were ready to embark on a new journey higher or lower, depe... READ MORE
Gregory Richardson
EVP - Capital Markets
Primis Mortgage Company