Low Volatility Session Ahead of Fed Day
Low Volatility Session Ahead of Fed Day
4 out of the year's 8 Fed announcements include an updated dot plot (i.e. a chart of each Fed member's projection for the Fed Funds Rate at the end of the next few years). Dots have come to be viewed as one of the biggest potential flashpoints for rate volatility, but their actual track record is hit and miss. Over the past few years, they've done more to simply add context or push-back to the tone conveyed in the statement or press conference, but have stopped short of re-writing the momentum narrative. This week's example should fit right in. We know the Fed won't hike and we know the dots won't be making the sort of huge leaps seen on several recent occasions. As for today, it was pleasant, but boring, with a slightly weaker start giving way to mild rally into the close--just another day inside the multi-week consolidation.
Low Volatility Session Ahead of Fed Day
Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wednesday, Mar 19 | |||||
12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
7:00AM | Mar/14 MBA Refi Index | Mar/14 | 794.4 | 911.3 | |
7:00AM | Mar/14 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/14 | 154.7 | 154.6 | |
10:30AM | Mar/14 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/14 | 1.745M | 1.1M | 1.448M |
11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.195% | 4.180% | ||
2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr | 3.4% | 3.9% | ||
2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr | 3.1% | 3.4% | ||
2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Current | 3.9% | 4.4% | ||
2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Longer | 3% | 3% | ||
2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | |
2:00PM | FOMC Economic Projections | ||||
2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
2:30PM | Powell Press Conference | ||||
Thursday, Mar 20 | |||||
8:30AM | Mar/08 Continued Claims (ml) | Mar/08 | 1892K | 1890K | 1870K |
8:30AM | Mar Philly Fed Prices Paid | Mar | 48.30 | 40.50 | |
8:30AM | Mar Philly Fed Business Index | Mar | 12.5 | 8.5 | 18.1 |
8:30AM | Mar/15 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/15 | 223K | 224K | 220K |
10:00AM | Feb CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Feb | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
10:00AM | Feb Existing home sales (ml) | Feb | 4.26M | 3.95M | 4.08M |
10:00AM | Feb Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Feb | 4.2% | -4.9% |