Bring on The Dots
Bring on The Dots
Today's only big ticket calendar event is the Fed announcement, but that is more like 3 separate events over the course of roughly 2 hours. The announcement itself (2pm ET) contains the text of the official policy statement as well as confirmation that the Fed Funds Rate will remain unchanged. Occasionally, changes to the verbiage can have an impact on bonds. Also out at 2pm is the Fed's summary of economic projections (SEP) which contains the illustrious dot plot (a chart with each Fed member's best guess on where the Fed Funds Rate will be in the coming years). The SEP is only at every other meeting. This is one of them. On SEP meetings (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec), the dot plot often steals the show. The Fed Chair holds a press conference at every meeting (2:30pm) which can either add momentum to the 2pm trading impulse, push back against it, or both. In today's case, we're not expecting any specific fireworks, but volatility is always a stronger possibility on dot plot Fed days.
Roughly unchanged overnight and slightly weaker in the past hour. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.302
Sideways since the last update. MBS down 3 ticks on the day and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.311
Stronger after Fed announcement (greatly slowing the pace of Treasury tightening). MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.274
Low Volatility Session Ahead of Fed Day
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Mar 19 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/14 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/14 | 252.5 | 269.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/14 MBA Refi Index | Mar/14 | 794.4 | 911.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/14 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Mar/14 | 6.72% | 6.67% | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/14 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/14 | 154.7 | 154.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/14 MBA Mortgage Applications | Mar/14 | -6.2% | 11.2% | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/14 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Mar/14 | 0.008M | -0.183M | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/14 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Mar/14 | -0.527M | -2.0M | -5.737M |
| 10:30AM | Mar/14 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Mar/14 | 0.067M | -0.078M | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/14 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Mar/14 | -2.812M | -0.1M | -1.559M |
| 10:30AM | Mar/14 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Mar/14 | -1.009M | -1.228M | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/14 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Mar/14 | 0.151M | -0.113M | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/14 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Mar/14 | -1.439M | 0.503M | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/14 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/14 | 1.745M | 1.1M | 1.448M |
| 10:30AM | Mar/14 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Mar/14 | -0.045M | 0.321M | |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.195% | 4.180% | ||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | |
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr | 3.4% | 3.9% | ||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Economic Projections | ||||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr | 3.1% | 3.4% | ||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Longer | 3% | 3% | ||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Current | 3.9% | 4.4% | ||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
| 2:30PM | Powell Press Conference | ||||
| 4:00PM | Jan Net Long-Term Flows, excluding swaps (TIC data) (bl) | Jan | $-45.2B | $101.1M | $72B |
| 4:00PM | Jan Overall net capital flows (TIC Data) (bl) | Jan | $-48.8B | $87.1B | |
| 4:00PM | Jan Foreign Buying, Bonds (TIC Data) (bl) | Jan | $-13.3B | $-49.7B | |
| Thursday, Mar 20 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Mar/08 Continued Claims (ml) | Mar/08 | 1890K | 1870K | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Current account (bl) | Q4 | $-325.5B | $-310.9B | |
| 8:30AM | Mar/15 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Mar/15 | 226K | ||
| 8:30AM | Mar Philly Fed Business Conditions | Mar | 27.8 | ||
| 8:30AM | Mar/15 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/15 | 224K | 220K | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Philly Fed Prices Paid | Mar | 40.50 | ||
| 8:30AM | Mar Philly Fed New Orders | Mar | 21.9 | ||
| 8:30AM | Mar Philly Fed CAPEX Index | Mar | 14.00 | ||
| 8:30AM | Mar Philly Fed Business Index | Mar | 8.5 | 18.1 | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Philly Fed Employment | Mar | 5.3 | ||
| 10:00AM | Feb CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Feb | -0.2% | -0.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Existing home sales (ml) | Feb | 3.95M | 4.08M | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Feb | -4.9% | ||
| 10:30AM | Mar/14 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Mar/14 | 5Bcf | -62Bcf | |
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.220% | |||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.225% | |||
| 12:00PM | Mar/20 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Mar/20 | 6.65% | ||
| 12:00PM | Mar/20 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Mar/20 | 5.8% | ||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr TIPS Auction (bl) | 18 | |||
| 1:00PM | 10-Year TIPS Auction | 2.243% | |||
| 4:30PM | Mar/19 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Mar/19 | $6.76T | ||
