What's Up With The Big Bond Rally Despite Higher Inflation?
What's Up With The Big Bond Rally Despite Higher Inflation?
It was one thing when bonds were only modestly stronger after this morning's inflation data. But 10yr yields went on to drop 12.7bps to the day at the lowest levels of the week (4.235%) and MBS rallied nearly 3/8ths of a point. The magnitude of the additional improvement demands additional explanation. On a speculative note, it's a strong possibility that we're seeing month/quarter-end positioning play a role. On a more obvious note, stocks tanked and there's a strong tendency for friendly spillover to bonds when stocks sell this much.
What's Up With The Big Bond Rally Despite Higher Inflation?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Mar 28 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb Personal Income (%) | Feb | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Feb | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Feb | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Feb | 0.4% | 0.5% | -0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Feb PCE (y/y) (%) | Feb | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 8:30AM | Feb PCE price index mm (%) | Feb | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 10:00AM | Mar U Mich conditions | Mar | 63.8 | 63.5 | 65.7 |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Mar | 5% | 4.9% | 4.3% |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Mar | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% |
| 10:00AM | Mar Michigan Consumer Expectations Final | Mar | 52.6 | 54.2 | 64.0 |
| 10:00AM | Mar Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Mar | 57.0 | 57.9 | 64.7 |
| 12:15PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Mar/28 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Mar/28 | 592 | 593 | |
| 1:00PM | Mar/28 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Mar/28 | 484 | 486 | |
| 3:30PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| Monday, Mar 31 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Mar Chicago PMI | Mar | 47.6 | 45.2 | 45.5 |
| 10:30AM | Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | Mar | -16.3 | -8.3 | |
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 68 | |||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 76 | |||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.070% | 4.085% | ||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.205% | 4.190% | ||
| 12:00PM | 2025 Prospective Plantings - Corn | 2025 | 95.326M | 94.35M | 90.036M |
| 12:00PM | 2025 Prospective Plantings - Soy | 2025 | 83.495M | 83.82M | 86.51M |
| 12:00PM | 2025 Prospective Plantings - Wheat | 2025 | 45.35M | 46.50M | 47.498M |
| 12:00PM | 2025 Prospective Plantings - Cotton | 2025 | 9.867M | 10.17M | 10.673M |
| 12:00PM | Mar Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn | Mar | 8.15B | 8.13B | 12.074B |
| 12:00PM | Mar Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy | Mar | 1.91B | 1.90B | 3.1B |
| 12:00PM | Mar Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat | Mar | 1.24B | 1.22B | 1.57B |
