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Stronger Start as Tariffs Continue Driving Flight to Safety
Stronger Start as Tariffs Continue Driving Flight to Safety
Right out of the gate in the overnight session, stocks were weaker and bonds were stronger in a risk-off move that has become all too familiar for financial markets recently. Over the weekend, a fresh round of tariff headlines added more economic uncertainty to the mix with Trump mentioning reciprocal tariffs with "all countries" and WSJ reporting that an across-the-board 20% tariff is being considered. Stocks and bond yields are both rapidly re-approaching their lowest levels of this cycle.
What's Up With The Big Bond Rally Despite Higher Inflation?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Mar 31 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Mar Chicago PMI | Mar | 47.6 | 45.2 | 45.5 |
| 10:30AM | Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | Mar | -16.3 | -8.3 | |
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 68 | |||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 76 | |||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.070% | 4.085% | ||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.205% | 4.190% | ||
| 12:00PM | 2025 Prospective Plantings - Corn | 2025 | 95.326M | 94.35M | 90.036M |
| 12:00PM | 2025 Prospective Plantings - Soy | 2025 | 83.495M | 83.82M | 86.51M |
| 12:00PM | 2025 Prospective Plantings - Wheat | 2025 | 45.35M | 46.50M | 47.498M |
| 12:00PM | 2025 Prospective Plantings - Cotton | 2025 | 9.867M | 10.17M | 10.673M |
| 12:00PM | Mar Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn | Mar | 8.15B | 8.13B | 12.074B |
| 12:00PM | Mar Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy | Mar | 1.91B | 1.90B | 3.1B |
| 12:00PM | Mar Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat | Mar | 1.24B | 1.22B | 1.57B |
| Tuesday, Apr 01 | |||||
| 8:55AM | Mar/29 Redbook yy (%) | Mar/29 | 4.8% | 5.6% | |
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Mar | 50.2 | 49.8 | 52.7 |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing New Orders | Mar | 45.2 | 48.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Mar | 69.4 | 65 | 62.4 |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing Employment | Mar | 44.7 | 47.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb USA JOLTS Job Openings | Feb | 7.568M | 7.63M | 7.74M |
| 10:00AM | Feb JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Feb | 3.195M | 3.266M | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI | Mar | 49 | 49.5 | 50.3 |
| 10:00AM | Feb Construction spending (%) | Feb | 0.7% | 0.3% | -0.2% |
| 10:30AM | Mar Dallas Fed Services Index | Mar | -11.3 | 4.6 | |
| 10:30AM | Mar Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | Mar | 1.3 | 8.2 | |
| 10:40AM | Apr IBD economic optimism | Apr | 49.1 | 50.1 | 49.8 |
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 50 | |||
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 4:30PM | Mar/28 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Mar/28 | +6.037M | -4.6M | |
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