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The Reasons May be Esoteric, But The Selling is Real
The Reasons May be Esoteric, But The Selling is Real
Bonds sold off today, in spite of a very bond-friendly CPI. One reason for that is the market's assumption that it will need to wait and see what tariffs do to inflation in the coming months. Another reason is the laundry list of reasons discussed in yesterday's recap. A new reason added to today's mix in the form of the passage of the budget framework in the House. As passed, there is $1.5 trillion in spending cuts staked simply on reassurances from Johnson and Thune. Markets didn't love the implications for Treasury issuance. The long end of the yield curve (10yr, 30yr, etc) took most of the damage while Fed rate expectations keep the short end of the curve anchored (i.e. a 2yr Treasury won't drift too far above medium term Fed Funds Rate expectations). So bonds had selling to do and 2s weren't eligible, per se. Result: bigger sell-off than we otherwise would have seen in 10s/30s.
The Reasons May be Esoteric, But The Selling is Real
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Apr 11 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 8:00AM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Mar Producer Prices (%) | Mar | -0.4% | 0.2% | 0% |
| 8:30AM | Mar Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Mar | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| 8:30AM | Mar Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Mar | -0.1% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| 9:00AM | Fed Collins Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Apr | 6.7% | 5% | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Apr | 4.4% | 4.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Apr U Mich conditions | Apr | 56.5 | 61.5 | 63.8 |
| 10:00AM | Apr Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Apr | 50.8 | 54.5 | 57.0 |
| 10:00AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 11:00AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| Monday, Apr 14 | |||||
| 11:00AM | Mar Consumer Inflation Expectations | Mar | 3.6% | 3.1% | |
| 12:00PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 6:00PM | Fed Harker Speech | ||||
| 7:40PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
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