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Absence Makes the Bonds Grow Stronger
Absence Makes the Bonds Grow Stronger
Bonds improved at a moderate pace for the 2nd day in a row, thus marking the first sustained push back against the recent rate spike. The gains are notable because they are not being driven by any big, new developments on the trade/tariff front. Instead, it is the absence of any such developments that is allowing the market to get back into a relatively calmer groove. That said, we wouldn't take the calm for granted. Bonds have merely moved back to more nimble territory as we wait for more policy clarity.
Choppy, sideways, but slightly stronger overnight. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down about half a bp at 4.367
Gains continue. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 5.5bps at 4.32
Down an eighth from the best levels of the day, but still up 5 ticks (.16). 10yr down 4bps at 4.333, but up a few bps from best levels.
Avoiding further weakness this afternoon. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.4bps at 4.33
Absence Makes Bonds Grow Stronger
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Apr 15 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Mar Import prices mm (%) | Mar | -0.1% | 0% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Mar Export prices mm (%) | Mar | 0% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Apr NY Fed Manufacturing | Apr | -8.10 | -14.5 | -20.00 |
| 11:35AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| 7:10PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| Wednesday, Apr 16 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Apr/11 MBA Purchase Index | Apr/11 | 172.7 | ||
| 7:00AM | Apr/11 MBA Refi Index | Apr/11 | 961.4 | ||
| 8:30AM | Mar Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Mar | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Retail Sales (%) | Mar | 1.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Mar | 0.6% | 1% | |
| 9:15AM | Mar Industrial Production (%) | Mar | -0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Business Inventories (% ) | Feb | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Apr NAHB housing market indx | Apr | 37 | 39 | |
| 10:30AM | Apr/11 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Apr/11 | -1.68M | 2.553M | |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction | 4.250% | |||
| 12:00PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
| 1:30PM | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ||||
| 7:00PM | Fed Schmid Speech | ||||
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