Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain
Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain
Bonds started weaker, flipped stronger mid-day, and then slowly moved back to unchanged levels by the close. Most of the day's volatility surrounded comments from a Swiss finance minister on this weekend's US/China trade talks (in Switzerland). The movement was very small in the bigger picture, possibly reflecting the very low odds for any sort of trade resolution like yesterday's UK/US deal. Still, over the weekend headlines may provide hints as to where the discussions are headed, and that could be worth some volatility as the coming week begins. A day later, CPI will provide the first big-picture assessment of April's inflation (still exceptionally early when it comes to potential tariff-related impacts, but not too early to see some impact).
Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain
Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monday, May 12 | |||||
12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
10:25AM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
10:30AM | NY Fed Treasury Purchases 4 to 6 yrs (%) | $75 million | |||
12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
2:00PM | Apr Federal budget, $ (bl) | Apr | $255B | $-161B | |
Tuesday, May 13 | |||||
6:00AM | Apr NFIB Business Optimism Index | Apr | 94.5 | 97.4 | |
8:30AM | Apr m/m Headline CPI (%) | Apr | 0.3% | -0.1% | |
8:30AM | Apr m/m CORE CPI (%) | Apr | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
8:30AM | Apr y/y Headline CPI (%) | Apr | 2.4% | 2.4% | |
8:30AM | Apr y/y CORE CPI (%) | Apr | 2.8% | 2.8% |