Slow Start Leaves Focus on The Next 2 Days
Slow Start Leaves Focus on The Next 2 Days
After rallying fairly well last Wednesday and Thursday, bonds pulled back on Friday, but not enough to erase more than half of the week's gains. The new week is starting out in uneventful fashion with trading levels reasonably close to Friday's latest levels after a bit of overnight weakness. The day's only econ data (NY Fed Manufacturing) isn't a big market mover to begin with and has already passed without a trace. With that, the focus remains square on Wednesday's Fed dot plot as a key informant for near-term bond market volatility. Tuesday's AM data also has some chance to cause a response--largely due to Retail Sales. Geopolitical headlines haven't been a big issue for better or worse as far as bonds are concerned although that could change depending on the nature of any additional escalation.
Choppy and slightly weaker overnight, but sideways and holding ground since then. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.4 bps at 4.426
After a decent rally into 10:30am, MBS are down an eighth from highs and 3 ticks (.09) on the day. 10yr up 4.6bps at 4.446
Heading out near weakest levels with MBS down an eighth on the day and 10yr yields up 5.3bps at 4.454
Not Reading Too Much Into Friday's Weakness
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Jun 16 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jun NY Fed Manufacturing | Jun | -16.00 | -5.5 | -9.20 |
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
| Tuesday, Jun 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | May Export prices mm (%) | May | -0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | May Retail Sales Control Group MoM | May | 0.3% | -0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | May Import prices mm (%) | May | -0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | May Retail Sales (%) | May | -0.7% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | May Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | May | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9:15AM | May Industrial Production (%) | May | 0.1% | 0% | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Business Inventories (% ) | Apr | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Jun NAHB housing market indx | Jun | 36 | 34 | |
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 23 | |||
| 8:00PM | International Monetary Market (IMM) Date (%) | ||||
