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Slow, Sideways Start, But Month-End Volatility Always a Possibility
Slow, Sideways Start, But Month-End Volatility Always a Possibility
Month/quarter end trading is a somewhat esoteric and potentially frustrating concept for the typical market watcher because it seemingly violates the notion that market move for logical underlying reasons. To be fair, month-end volatility also has logical underlying reasons, but the logic requires a fairly deep dive (which is why we have a primer on the topic). Today's only econ data is/was Chicago PMI which has already come and gone with no fanfare. Trading levels are best described as sideways from Friday and the intraday range, far narrower. If month-end volatility picks up, it would tend to be in the PM hours--especially in the 2pm-4pm ET time frame.
Modestly stronger overnight with gains at the start of EU trading. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.264
Very calm still. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.263
Month-end buying picking up a bit. 10yr down 4.8bps at 4.234. MBS up an eighth.
Modest Friday Bounce Does Little to Alter Bigger Picture
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Jun 30 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Jun Chicago PMI | Jun | 40.4 | 43 | 40.5 |
| 10:00AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Golsbee Speech | ||||
| Tuesday, Jul 01 | |||||
| 9:30AM | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Jun S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Jun | 52 | 52 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Manufacturing Employment | Jun | 46.8 | ||
| 10:00AM | May Construction spending (%) | May | -0.1% | -0.4% | |
| 10:00AM | May JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | May | 3.194M | ||
| 10:00AM | May USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | May | 7.3M | 7.391M | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Jun | 69 | 69.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI | Jun | 48.8 | 48.5 | |
| 10:10AM | Jul IBD economic optimism | Jul | 50.1 | 49.2 | |
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