Jobs Report Comes in Stronger. Bonds React Logically
Jobs Report Comes in Stronger. Bonds React Logically
Apart from the fact that this morning's jobs report contrasted starkly from the slew of anecdotal evidence suggesting a weaker labor market in June, the morning has proceeded almost exactly as expected. We assumed that even an on-target result was worth a bit of bond market weakness given the apparent "lead-off" induced by preceding data. The moderately stronger result (147k vs 110k f'cast) was more than enough to add some emphasis to the sell-off. Add the 0.2% drop in unemployment and it was game over. Are there some "yeah buts" in the data? Sure, but none so striking as to suggest yields should be lower instead of higher today.
Sharply weaker after jobs data, but recovering somewhat. MBS down an eighth of a point and 10yr up 5bps at 4.33
Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jul 03 | |||||
| 8:30AM | May Trade Gap (bl) | May | $-71.5B | $-71B | $-61.6B |
| 8:30AM | Jun/21 Continued Claims (ml) | Jun/21 | 1964K | 1960K | 1974K |
| 8:30AM | Jun Participation Rate | Jun | 62.3% | 62.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Average earnings mm (%) | Jun | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jun/28 Jobless Claims (k) | Jun/28 | 233K | 240K | 236K |
| 8:30AM | Jun Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Jun | 147K | 110K | 139K |
| 8:30AM | Jun Unemployment rate mm (%) | Jun | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| 9:45AM | Jun S&P Global Composite PMI | Jun | 52.9 | 52.8 | 53 |
| 9:45AM | Jun S&P Global Services PMI | Jun | 52.9 | 53.1 | 53.7 |
| 10:00AM | May Factory orders mm (%) | May | 8.2% | 8.2% | -3.7% |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Services Prices | Jun | 67.5 | 68.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Services Employment | Jun | 47.2 | 50.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Biz Activity | Jun | 54.2 | 50.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jun | 50.8 | 50.5 | 49.9 |
| 11:00AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Happy 4th!! | ||||
| Friday, Jul 04 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Happy 4th!! | ||||
