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Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum
Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum
Everyone loves a good free preview, but not all of the bond market enjoyed today's version. It involved reports that Trump was considering firing Powell. Forget the nitty gritty details because markets took it very seriously if volume is any indication (highest since tariff announcement week in April). Those who pay close attention were not-at-all-surprised to see longer-term yields RISING in response. After all, a more dovish Fed could only directly control overnight rates. This is enough to maybe help 2yr Treasuries and under, but from there on up, bonds price in higher inflation and lower global confidence in the dollar and US Treasuries. Trump later said he's not considering firing Powell, but bonds remained skeptical with 2yr vs 10yr spreads only reversing about half of the mid-day spike. This shows that traders felt a bit spooked about owning longer term debt in a world where something like this might actually happen, and thus re-allocated toward shorter-term debt for now. Scary-sounding stuff aside, 10yr yields and MBS both made solid enough gains on the day. All the drama transpired behind the scenes as far as rates were concerned (apart from a small handful of lenders who repriced for worse before repricing for the better).
Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jul 16 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Jul/11 MBA Refi Index | Jul/11 | 767.6 | 829.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/11 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/11 | 159.6 | 180.9 | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Producer Prices (%) | Jun | 0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Jun | 0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Jun | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3% |
| 9:15AM | Jun Industrial Production (%) | Jun | 0.3% | 0.1% | -0.2% |
| 9:15AM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Jul/11 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/11 | -3.859M | -0.9M | 7.07M |
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| 6:30PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Jul 17 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Sales (%) | Jun | 0.6% | 0.1% | -0.9% |
| 8:30AM | Jul/12 Jobless Claims (k) | Jul/12 | 221K | 235K | 227K |
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Jun | 0.5% | 0.3% | -0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Business Index | Jul | 15.9 | -1 | -4.0 |
| 8:30AM | Jul/05 Continued Claims (ml) | Jul/05 | 1,956K | 1970K | 1965K |
| 8:30AM | Jun Import prices mm (%) | Jun | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Export prices mm (%) | Jun | 0.5% | 0% | -0.9% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Prices Paid | Jul | 58.80 | 41.40 | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Jun | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 10:00AM | May Business Inventories (% ) | May | 0% | 0% | |
| 10:00AM | Jul NAHB housing market indx | Jul | 33 | 32 | |
| 10:00AM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
| 1:30PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 6:30PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
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