Broker Owner
Ingram Company
License:
CA DRE: 01226769
NMLS: 371141 / 358879

Reasonably Resilient After Data-Driven Selling

Reasonably Resilient After Data-Driven Selling

This morning's Jobless Claims report was the week's most relevant economic report apart from the S&P PMI data that came out just over an hour later.  As it happened, Claims garnered the only obvious response, pushing yields slightly higher in addition to the modest weakness seen in the overnight session. Bonds were able to push back in a friendlier direction at the 9:30am NYSE open--something they've done on 3 out of 4 days this week.  It wasn't quite enough to turn a red day green, but with MBS ending down only 2 ticks (.06), some might say it was close enough for government work.

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Reasonably Resilient After Data-Driven Selling

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.33 +0.02 10YR 4.387% -0.011% 7/25/2025 5:00PM EST
Jobless claims data continues to defy a majority of other labor market metrics in showing a remarkable lack of any signs of softening.  In fact, the 4 week average is now at a 13 week low.  While this isn't the most highly consequential econ data, it's one of this week's only actionable reports. As such, bonds are undergoing a small but negative reaction, adding to moderate overnight weakness.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.81% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 6.05% +0.00% 7/25/2025
After falling for 5 straight days leading into Tuesday, mortgage rates have now moved slightly higher on each of the past two days. As was the case with the improvement, the bounce back has been exceedingly modest in its pace. In fact, most borrowers will be seeing the same rates today vs last week with only minor changes in upfront costs. Today was the only day of the present week with any meaningful economic data. This is relevant because rates are based on bonds and ec...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jul 25
8:30AM Jun Durable goods (%) Jun -9.3% -10.8% 16.4%
8:30AM Jun Core CapEx (%) Jun -0.7% 0.2% 1.7%
Monday, Jul 28
11:30AM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
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It was a hotly anticipated week, mainly due to the scheduled release of important inflation data on Tuesday, but the rate market almost got more than it bargained for thanks to unexpected headlines the following day. Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) provided the first major, national glimpse of inflation in June. It was also the biggest opportunity yet to see whether ta... READ MORE
Broker Owner
Ingram Company
License:
CA DRE: 01226769
NMLS: 371141 / 358879