Slow, Steady, Modest Improvement

Slow, Steady, Modest Improvement

Bonds are in the throes of the summertime "blahs." In other words, excitement and high-conviction trading are in short supply. Instead, prices and yields are drifting in a broadly sideways path with minimal day to day movement. Motivations are non-existent and the numbers on the screen are incidental byproducts of non-data-driven hedging and position squaring.  It's easier to just say "the blahs."  Thankfully, the blahs aren't always bad.  Today's blah were pretty OK with 10yr yields hitting the 3pm close with a few bps of improvement and MBS holding a 1 tick (.03) improvement for most of the day. Motivations remain in short supply in the near term.  Wednesday's Fed Minutes won't have any revelations that haven't already come to light in Fed speeches. Powell's Friday speech at Jackson Hole is the only scheduled event with teeth, and those teeth are nowhere near as sharp as something like the jobs report.

Market Movement Recap
09:30 AM

modestly stronger overnight.  10yr down 1.7bps at 4.319. MBS up 1 tick (.03)

12:51 PM

10yr down 2.7bps at 4.309 and MBS still up 1 tick (.03)

04:10 PM

10yr down 2.9bps at 4.307.  MBS still up 1 tick (.03).

Latest Video Analysis

Slow, Steady, Modest Improvement

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.95 -0.05 10YR 4.313% +0.007% 8/19/2025 9:44PM EST
If yesterday was marked by incidental weakness, today is shaping up to be the opposite.  In fact, yields and MBS prices are right in line with Friday's latest levels in early trading (now moving lower), as if Monday never even happened.  "Incidental" remains a valid theme for most of the week.  Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech is just about the only event with any reasonable volatility potential.  Other than that, we're counting the hours until the n...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.60% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.96% -0.01% 8/19/2025
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds, and bonds have some seasonality to them.  This doesn't necessarily mean there's a reliable seasonal pattern for the direction of rate movement.  Rather, it means that several weeks in August tend to be fairly forgettable in terms of excitement, volatility, and methodical movement.  The 2 most recent weeks arguably fit that bill.  Bonds (and, thus, rates) are still operating in the range seen in the 24 hours f...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Aug 19
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
8:30AM Jul Building Permits (ml) Jul 1.354M 1.39M 1.393M
8:30AM Jul Housing starts number mm (ml) Jul 1.428M 1.29M 1.321M
2:10PM Fed Bowman Speech
Wednesday, Aug 20
7:00AM Aug/15 MBA Refi Index Aug/15 956.2
7:00AM Aug/15 MBA Purchase Index Aug/15 160.2
10:30AM Aug/15 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Aug/15 3.037M
11:00AM Fed Waller Speech
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 16
2:00PM FOMC Minutes
3:00PM Fed Bostic Speech
8:00PM Jackson Hole Symposium
Read My Latest Newsletter
Inflation data was in focus this week, with one major report helping mortgage rates officially hit new 10-month lows before the 2nd report pushed back in the other direction. The biggest report, Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), was generally friendly for rates despite coming in right in line with forecasts. Some categories showed tariff-related price pressures, but easing in hou... READ MORE