Helpful Data and Treasury Auction Set High Bar For CPI
Helpful Data and Treasury Auction Set High Bar For CPI
Another fairly straightforward day for the bond market with friendly econ data and a strong 10yr Treasury auction both helping push yields lower. If it seems like the size of the miss in the PPI data justified a bigger move, consider the fact that it's an incredibly volatile data series. Additionally, last month's PPI created "base effect" issues (i.e. it was so high that today's -0.1% reading leaves the 2 month annualized level at 3.6%--still too high. Nonetheless, it was good enough news for bonds to push back against overnight weakness. The afternoon's 10yr auction helped bring yields to new lows for the day before ebbing slightly higher in the afternoon. Thursday AM's CPI release is this week's big to-do from a potential volatility standpoint.
Helpful Data and Treasury Auction Set High Bar For CPI
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Sep 11 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Aug/30 Continued Claims (k) | Aug/30 | 1950K | 1940K | |
| 8:30AM | Aug y/y Headline CPI (%) | Aug | 2.9% | 2.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug m/m Headline CPI (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep/06 Jobless Claims (k) | Sep/06 | 235K | 237K | |
| 8:30AM | Aug y/y CORE CPI (%) | Aug | 3.1% | 3.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug m/m CORE CPI (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.813% | |||
| 2:00PM | Aug Federal budget, $ (bl) | Aug | $-281B | $-291B | |
| Friday, Sep 12 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 10:00AM | Sep Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Sep | 58 | 58.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Sep | 3.5% | ||
| 10:00AM | Sep U Mich conditions | Sep | 61.3 | 61.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Sep | 4.8% | ||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
