Mark Ingram
Broker Owner
Ingram Company
P: (949) 378-1701
M: (949) 378-1701
www.ingramcompany.net
170 E. 17th St. #200G
Costa Mesa CA 92627
License:
CA DRE: 01226769
NMLS: 371141 / 358879

Quiet Friday Ahead of Highly Uncertain Week

Friday, September 26, 2025

Quiet Friday Ahead of Highly Uncertain Week

Friday brought a quiet end to a quiet week.  Yes, yields drifted slightly higher, but not in an overly threatening way, and 10yr yield yields managed to hold below the 4.19% technical level. Today's PCE data was right in line with forecasts and did nothing to inform bond market momentum. The incoming week is far more interesting at this point. Markets are hungry for a jobs report that may be severely delayed depending on the presence and duration of a government shutdown. We'll know much more by 12:01AM on Wednesday morning.

Market Movement Recap
09:21 AM

Little-changed after PCE data.  MBS unchanged and 10yr up 0.6bps at 4.17

10:36 AM

Weaker at 9:20am but bouncing back now.  MBS unchanged and 10yr up 0.6bps at 4.17

02:04 PM

Sideways near weaker levels.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 2.2bps at 4.186

Latest Video Analysis

Quiet Friday Ahead of a Highly Uncertain Week

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.13 -0.02 10YR 4.171% +0.007% 9/26/2025 5:08PM EST
Minimal Reaction to PCE Data
PCE may be the most relevant inflation report when it comes to assessing progress toward the Fed's 2% target, but it is not the most relevant report to the bond market. The reporting lag is the key issue.  Today's report is for the ancient past (August), and we already got CPI/PPI 2 weeks ago. Additionally, CPI/PPI help forecasters hone in on likely PCE results, so surprises are less likely.  Case in point, in both monthly and annual terms, core PCE was right on tar...   READ MORE
MBS Morning:
Stronger Data Hurting Bonds
Update:
Losing Ground After Stronger Data
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.38% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.90% +0.00% 9/26/2025
Mortgage Rates End Week as it Began
Last week was a wild one for mortgage rates with the lowest levels in nearly a year on Monday and an abrupt spike after Wednesday's Fed announcement.  The present week has been completely different with each day seeing minimal change compared to the previous session.  Today was no exception. This was actually a logical outcome based on the morning's economic data.  PCE inflation--the broadest inflation metric and the Fed's favorite--came in right in line wi...   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Sep 26
8:00AM Fed Hammack Speech
8:30AM Aug Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) Aug 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
8:30AM Aug Core PCE (m/m) (%) Aug 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
8:30AM Aug Personal Income (%) Aug 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
8:30AM Aug Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) Aug 0.6% 0.5% 0.5%
9:00AM Fed Barkin Speech
10:00AM Sep Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Sep 4.7% 4.8% 4.8%
10:00AM Sep U Mich conditions Sep 60.4 61.2 61.7
10:00AM Sep Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Sep 3.7% 3.9% 3.5%
10:00AM Sep Consumer Sentiment (ip) Sep 55.1 55.4 58.2
1:00PM Fed Bowman Speech
1:30PM Fed Musalem Speech
6:00PM Fed Bostic Speech
8:00PM UN General Assembly (%)
Monday, Sep 29
7:30AM Fed Waller Speech
8:00AM Fed Hammack Speech
10:00AM Aug Pending Home Sales (%) Aug 0.1% -0.4%
1:30PM Fed Musalem Speech
1:30PM Fed Williams Speech
6:00PM Fed Bostic Speech
Recent Housing News
Read My Latest Newsletter
How Next Week's Potential Shutdown Could Impact Rates
9/26/2025 4:35PM
It's that time again, maybe. By this time next week, we will either be several days into another government shutdown or in the throes of volatility following the big jobs report, but it's probably one or the other. Officially known as The Employment Situation, the monthly jobs report is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), part of the Federal government's Department of Labor. If t... READ MORE
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Mark Ingram
Broker Owner
Ingram Company
P: (949) 378-1701
M: (949) 378-1701
www.ingramcompany.net
170 E. 17th St. #200G
Costa Mesa CA 92627
License:
CA DRE: 01226769
NMLS: 371141 / 358879
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.