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Weaker Start Despite Modest Boost From ISM Data
Weaker Start Despite Modest Boost From ISM Data
Bonds were moderately weaker in the overnight session with most of the selling arriving at 7:56am ET when Alphabet filed for a large corporate bond offering, estimated at $15bln. Corporate bond issuance puts upward pressure on rates in several ways and there's almost always an immediate pop when a new, large deal (like this morning's) is announced. As a result, 10yr yields were roughly 4bps higher at the open. We saw a small rally in response to tepid ISM manufacturing data, but it doesn't seem to be sticking.
Moderately weaker overnight with a modest bounce back after ISM data. MBS still down an eighth and 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.104
Sideways Overall Despite Hawkish Fed Speakers
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Nov 03 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Oct S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Oct | 52.5 | 52.2 | 52.0 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Manufacturing Employment | Oct | 46.0 | 45.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Oct | 58.0 | 61.7 | 61.9 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Manufacturing PMI | Oct | 48.7 | 49.5 | 49.1 |
| 12:00PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| Tuesday, Nov 04 | |||||
| 6:35AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Aug Trade Gap (on hold, shutdown) (bl) | Aug | $-60.4B | $-78.3B | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Trade Gap (on hold, shutdown) (bl) | Sep | |||
| 10:00AM | Oct Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Oct | 15.6M | 16.4M | |
| 10:00AM | Sep (on hold) USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Sep | 7.227M | ||
| 10:00AM | Sep (on hold) JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Sep | 3.091M | ||
| 10:10AM | Nov IBD economic optimism | Nov | 48.1 | 48.3 | |
| 10:30AM | NY Fed Treasury Purchases 10 to 22.5 yrs (%) | $50 million | |||
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